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Model picks & player props
Burnley
VS
Liverpool

Burnley vs Liverpool Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 31, 3:51AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

Soccer
Anfield, Liverpool
Outdoor
Sat 17 Jan 2026, 3:00PM
7
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Liverpool Draw No Bet -1667

The model graded 7 markets for Burnley vs Liverpool (Soccer) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $106 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sat 17 Jan 2026, 3:00PM at Anfield.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win97.2%
The price says94.3%
Best price-1667
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Draw No Bet Liverpool High97% chance -1667
Both Teams to Score Lean49% chance —
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best Soccer market — 43 of 91 right (soccer draw no bet calls)
This bet type · last timeAug 30
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Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Draw No Bet
Liverpool
-1667
+ 6 more markets
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All 7 game markets and 0 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 56,403+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
LiverpoolDraw No BetThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
YesBoth Teams to ScoreThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Burnley

Player availability is not tracked for Soccer on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Liverpool

Player availability is not tracked for Soccer on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Burnley vs Liverpool: Soccer weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture on our data, and player availability isn't tracked for Soccer on this page.

General rule: weather isn't a material factor for this sport in our models — availability of key players is the variable that moves the line.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineBurnley @ LiverpoolNo line posted
6-1-1past meetings (last 8)
Draw54%Home form13-5-2Away form2-7-11
past meetings, home wins6 / 8 home

In their last 8 meetings, Liverpool have won 6, drawn 1 and lost 1. Lines reflect the most recent tracked fixture, not a live market.

Draw No BetBurnley @ LiverpoolNo line posted
97%Liverpool win %
6-1-1past meetings (last 8)
Home GF/g2.3Away GF/g1.2

Liverpool to win with the stake returned on a draw; the model prices this at 97%. Lines reflect the most recent tracked fixture, not a live market.

Both Teams to ScoreBurnley @ LiverpoolNo line posted
60%both teams score %
2 / 8past meetings, both scored
Liverpool65%Burnley75%Free board15-13
past meetings, both scored2 / 8 both scored

Both teams scored in 65% of Liverpool's and 75% of Burnley's recent matches; our model makes both teams scoring 60% here. Lines reflect the most recent tracked fixture, not a live market.

Total GoalsBurnley @ LiverpoolNo line posted
3 / 8past meetings, over 2.5
Home ov2.565%Away ov2.565%past meetings avg2.3
past meetings, over 2.53 / 8 over

The last 8 meetings averaged 2.3 goals, over 2.5 in 3 of them. Lines reflect the most recent tracked fixture, not a live market.

Burnley @ Liverpool — what the model found

Our model graded 7 betting markets for Burnley at Liverpool — 7 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

7
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 7 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

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Burnley @ Liverpool — model preview

Winning soccer bets for Liverpool vs Burnley? We break down EPL odds and insights. Includes analysis on key players like Hugo Ekitike. Explore EPL predictions, EPL game picks, soccer betting preview, Liverpool vs Burnley stats and odds.

Hugo Ekitike (Eintracht Frankfurt) Yes Anytime Goalscorer (-141)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Hugo Ekitike has a higher goal and shot average in away games, which is relevant as Burnley will be playing away against Liverpool. His average away goals stand at 0.6 compared to 0.2 overall, a threefold increase. Similarly, his shots on target average also increases to 1.6 in away games from an overall average of 0.6. This demonstrates his enhanced performance in away matches. Although his current hit streak is zero, the increased averages in away games indicate a higher probability of scoring. The model prediction of 0.62 also supports this, suggesting a favorable outcome. Therefore, betting on Ekitike as an anytime goalscorer is a statistically sound choice.

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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
1
Total Picks
—
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
17 Jan 26 Both Teams to Score Yes ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Burnley vs Liverpool in the Soccer. The most recent game between them was Saturday 17 January 2026 at Anfield. The model has generated 7 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your Soccer betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 20 meetings on record
Liverpool 15–2 across the last 20 meetings · 3 draws · these games average 2.6 goals (meetings on record since 2009)
DateGameScoreWinner
17 Jan 2026Burnley @ Liverpool1–1Draw
14 Sep 2025Liverpool @ Burnley0–1Liverpool
10 Feb 2024Burnley @ Liverpool3–1Liverpool
26 Dec 2023Liverpool @ Burnley0–2Liverpool
13 Feb 2022Liverpool @ Burnley0–1Liverpool
21 Aug 2021Burnley @ Liverpool2–0Liverpool
19 May 2021Liverpool @ Burnley0–3Liverpool
21 Jan 2021Burnley @ Liverpool0–1Burnley
11 Jul 2020Burnley @ Liverpool1–1Draw
31 Aug 2019Liverpool @ Burnley0–3Liverpool

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 20 meetings on file.

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