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Model picks & player props
MLB
Petco Park, San Diego
Outdoor
Sat 12 Jul 2025, 7:35 PM ET
Philadelphia Phillies
VS
San Diego Padres

Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres Prediction & Picks

Our model graded 7 markets for Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres and backs San Diego Padres hardest, a lean, and $100 on it returns about $244.

3
Game markets graded
4
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first Free
San Diego Padres
to win
San Diego Padres Moneyline
You bet$10 If it wins$24.40Best price+144
Our confidenceLean
Chance to win50.6%
The price says41.0%

The model graded 7 markets for Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $244 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sat 12 Jul 2025, 7:35 PM ET at Petco Park.

This game's bets

The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline San Diego Padres Lean51% chance +144
Moneyline Members only High70% chance Members
Batter - Stolen Bases × 2 props Highup to 93% Members
Pitcher - Walks × 1 prop Highup to 89% Members
Pitcher - Strikeouts × 1 prop Highup to 90% Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres last met on Sat 12 Jul 2025. Their next game gets a fresh preview here the moment it is priced. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
San Diego Padres
+ 2 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
San Diego PadresMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Caleb Kilian RPOut
  • Felix Reyes LFOut
  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut

San Diego Padres

  • Adrian Morejon RPDay-to-day
  • Gavin Sheets 1BDay-to-day
  • Rodolfo Duran COut
  • Miguel Andujar DHOut
  • Jeremiah Estrada RPOut
  • Ramon Laureano LFOut
  • Luis Rengifo LFOut
  • Lucas Giolito SPOut
  • Bryan Hoeing RPOut
Availability updated Oct 7, 1:10PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 14 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability14 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Bryson Stott PHI Batter - Stolen Bases
Zack Wheeler PHI Pitcher - Walks
Brandon Marsh PHI Batter - Stolen Bases
Zack Wheeler PHI Pitcher - Strikeouts

+ 4 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineSan Diego PadresNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF4.2L5 RA2.2Home L55-0vs Philadelphia Phillies L53-2

San Diego Padres moneyline form: last five 3-2, 4.2 runs/gm.

Run LineSan Diego Padres run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF4.2L5 RA2.2Home L55-0vs Philadelphia Phillies L53-2

San Diego Padres spread form: last five 3-2, 4.2 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia PhilliesNo line posted

San Diego Padres total runs form: last five 3-2, 4.2 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsSan Diego Padres team totalNo line posted
4.8runs we expect
L5 RF4.2L5 RA2.2Home L55-0vs Philadelphia Phillies L53-2

San Diego Padres team total runs form: last five 3-2, 4.2 runs/gm.

Philadelphia Phillies @ San Diego Padres — what the model found

Our model graded 7 betting markets for Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres — 3 on the game itself and 4 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

3
Game markets graded
4
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 7 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 6 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres — recent results

San Diego Padres have won 2 of their last 5 games; Philadelphia Phillies have won 2 of their last 5.

San Diego Padres — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–3MILHome
W4–3MILHome
L2–3MILAway
L3–4MILAway
W4–1CHCHome
Philadelphia Phillies — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L2–6ATLAway
W4–3ATLAway
L3–5ATLAway
W7–3TBHome
L1–12TBHome

Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres — recent meetings

These two have met 6 times recently: San Diego Padres won 0, Philadelphia Phillies won 6.

DateSan Diego PadresPhiladelphia PhilliesWinner
Jun 446Philadelphia Phillies
Jun 323Philadelphia Phillies
Jun 223Philadelphia Phillies
May 2703Philadelphia Phillies
May 2734Philadelphia Phillies
May 2503Philadelphia Phillies

Who’s out or in doubt

14 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

San Diego Padres
PlayerStatus
Adrian Morejon RPDAY-TO-DAY
Gavin Sheets 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Rodolfo Duran COUT
Miguel Andujar DHOUT
Jeremiah Estrada RPOUT
Ramon Laureano LFOUT
Luis Rengifo LFOUT
Lucas Giolito SPOUT
Philadelphia Phillies
PlayerStatus
Caleb Kilian RPOUT
Felix Reyes LFOUT
Brad Keller RPOUT
Johan Rojas CFOUT
Adolis Garcia RFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Philadelphia Phillies @ San Diego Padres — model preview

Latest MLB betting preview: San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like Zack Wheeler. Keywords: MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies stats and odds.

Zack Wheeler (PHI) Over 0.5 Walks Allowed (-455)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Zack Wheeler for Over 0.5 in the Pitcher Walks Allowed market is a good choice based on his recent performance data. Wheeler has averaged 1.2 walks overall in his last five games and his average increases to 1.8 walks when playing away. This suggests that he is more likely to give up at least one walk when playing away from home. Furthermore, his average walks allowed against the Padres is 0.7, still above the line of 0.5. His innings pitched and outs averages also indicate he typically stays in the game long enough to potentially allow a walk. Moreover, his current away hit streak stands at 5, implying a pattern of allowing hits in away games, which can correlate with walks. Therefore, these stats collectively indicate a strong likelihood of Wheeler allowing at least one walk in the upcoming game.

🔒 The other 2 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Phillies vs Padres, or as Padres vs Phillies. The most recent game between them was Saturday 12 July 2025 at Petco Park. The model has generated 3 game picks and 4 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres head-to-head record

Final scores · 23 meetings on record
Philadelphia Phillies 18–5 across the last 23 meetings · these games average 7.9 runs (meetings on record since 2023)

Last meeting: Thu 4 Jun 2026, San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies: the Phillies won 6-4.

DateGameScoreWinner
4 Jun 2026San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies6–4Philadelphia Phillies
3 Jun 2026San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies3–2Philadelphia Phillies
2 Jun 2026San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies3–2Philadelphia Phillies
27 May 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ San Diego Padres0–3Philadelphia Phillies
26 May 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ San Diego Padres3–4Philadelphia Phillies
25 May 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ San Diego Padres0–3Philadelphia Phillies
13 Jul 2025Philadelphia Phillies @ San Diego Padres1–2Philadelphia Phillies
12 Jul 2025Philadelphia Phillies @ San Diego Padres5–4San Diego Padres
11 Jul 2025Philadelphia Phillies @ San Diego Padres4–2San Diego Padres
2 Jul 2025San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies5–1Philadelphia Phillies

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 23 meetings on file.

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