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MLB
Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati
Outdoor
Thu 9 Jul 2026, 7:10 PM ET
Philadelphia Phillies
VS
Cincinnati Reds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction & Picks

Our model graded 22 markets for Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds and backs Over 11.5 hardest, a strong call, and $100 on it returns about $290.

20
Game markets graded
2
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first Free
Over 11.5 total runs
Over 11.5 Total Runs
You bet$10 If it wins$29.00Best price+190
Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win63.7%
The price says34.5%

The model graded 22 markets for Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $290 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Thu 9 Jul 2026, 7:10 PM ET at Great American Ball Park.

This game's bets

The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Runs Over 11.5 High64% chance +190
Total Runs Members only High72% chance Members
Spread Members only Lean46% chance Members
Moneyline Members only High62% chance Members
Batter - Hits × 2 props Highup to 83% Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Philadelphia Phillies and Cincinnati Reds last met on Thu 9 Jul 2026: Philadelphia Phillies won 1-0. Their next game gets a fresh preview here the moment it is priced. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs
Over
11.5
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 2 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 67,257+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Caleb Kilian RPOut
  • Felix Reyes LFOut
  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut

Cincinnati Reds

  • Spencer Steer 1BOut
  • Dane Myers CFOut
  • Tony Santillan RPOut
  • Chase Burns SPOut
  • Julian Garcia RPOut
  • Blake Dunn CFOut
  • Hunter Greene SPOut
Availability updated Oct 3, 4:19PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 12 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability12 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Alec Bohm PHI Batter - Hits
Bryce Harper PHI Batter - Hits

+ 2 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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The players are right there — Pro shows which of their lines the model backs, and how much to put on each.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineCincinnati RedsNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF3.8L5 RA4.8Home L53-2vs Philadelphia Phillies L52-3

Cincinnati Reds moneyline form: last five 2-3, 3.8 runs/gm.

Run LineCincinnati Reds run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF3.8L5 RA4.8Home L53-2vs Philadelphia Phillies L52-3

Cincinnati Reds spread form: last five 2-3, 3.8 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia PhilliesNo line posted

Cincinnati Reds total runs form: last five 2-3, 3.8 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsCincinnati Reds team totalNo line posted
4.6runs we expect
L5 RF3.8L5 RA4.8Home L53-2vs Philadelphia Phillies L52-3

Cincinnati Reds team total runs form: last five 2-3, 3.8 runs/gm.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds — what the model found

Our model graded 22 betting markets for Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds — 20 on the game itself and 2 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
2
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 22 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 21 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds — recent results

Cincinnati Reds have won 2 of their last 5 games; Philadelphia Phillies have won 2 of their last 5.

Cincinnati Reds — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–5TORAway
W5–1TORAway
L5–6TORAway
W7–6ATLAway
L2–3ATLAway
Philadelphia Phillies — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L2–6ATLAway
W4–3ATLAway
L3–5ATLAway
W7–3TBHome
L1–12TBHome

Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Cincinnati Reds are scoring 4.0 runs per game (3-2) while Philadelphia Phillies are at 3.6 (2-3); Cincinnati Reds pitchers are allowing 2.4 earned runs per game versus 4.6 for Philadelphia Phillies.

4.0
Cincinnati Reds runs/G
3.6
Philadelphia Phillies runs/G
Last 5 gamesCincinnati RedsPhiladelphia Phillies
Runs / game4.03.6
Hits / game5.25.4
Home runs / game1.01.2
Walks drawn / game2.01.8
Batter K / game4.25.2
Earned runs allowed / game2.44.6
Pitching K / game3.85.0
Walks allowed / game2.81.2
L5 record3-22-3

Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds — recent meetings

These two have met 6 times recently: Cincinnati Reds won 3, Philadelphia Phillies won 3.

DateCincinnati RedsPhiladelphia PhilliesWinner
Jul 901Philadelphia Phillies
Jul 8115Cincinnati Reds
Jul 714Philadelphia Phillies
May 2094Cincinnati Reds
May 1941Cincinnati Reds
May 1845Philadelphia Phillies

Who’s out or in doubt

12 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Cincinnati Reds
PlayerStatus
Spencer Steer 1BOUT
Dane Myers CFOUT
Tony Santillan RPOUT
Chase Burns SPOUT
Julian Garcia RPOUT
Blake Dunn CFOUT
Hunter Greene SPOUT
Philadelphia Phillies
PlayerStatus
Caleb Kilian RPOUT
Felix Reyes LFOUT
Brad Keller RPOUT
Johan Rojas CFOUT
Adolis Garcia RFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds — model preview

Expert analysis and top MLB betting picks for Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies. Featuring picks like NA props. Discover same game parlay, SGP picks, MLB parlay odds, baseball parlay.

Hunter Greene (CIN) Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-1667)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Hunter Greene for Over 3.5 in the Pitcher Strikeouts market is well supported by his recent performance data. Greene's last five overall and home games show a strong strikeout average of 7 and 7.2 respectively, significantly higher than the line of 3.5. His innings pitched and outs averages also indicate he stays in the game long enough to achieve high strikeout numbers. Even when facing the Phillies, his strikeout average remains above the line at 5.5. Furthermore, Greene is currently on a hot streak with five consecutive games hitting the over in strikeouts, including the last two at home. These factors combine to make this bet a statistically sound choice.

🔒 The other 2 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Phillies vs Reds, or as Reds vs Phillies. The most recent game between them was Thursday 9 July 2026 at Great American Ball Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 2 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds head-to-head record

Final scores · 26 meetings on record
Even at 13–13 across the last 26 meetings · these games average 8.6 runs (meetings on record since 2023)

Last meeting: Thu 9 Jul 2026, Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds: the Phillies won 1-0.

DateGameScoreWinner
9 Jul 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds0–1Philadelphia Phillies
8 Jul 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds11–5Cincinnati Reds
7 Jul 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds1–4Philadelphia Phillies
20 May 2026Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies4–9Cincinnati Reds
19 May 2026Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies1–4Cincinnati Reds
18 May 2026Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies5–4Philadelphia Phillies
13 Aug 2025Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds8–0Cincinnati Reds
12 Aug 2025Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds6–1Cincinnati Reds
11 Aug 2025Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds1–4Philadelphia Phillies
6 Jul 2025Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies3–1Philadelphia Phillies

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 26 meetings on file.

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