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The latest Bet Better model pick for Nathan MacKinnon is Under 4.5 on Shots on Goal.
On Shots on Goal, our numbers say this bet wins about 72 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 72%, the price says 62%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NHL schedule.
Model updated Sep 30, 9:24PM UTC
NHL

Nathan MacKinnon

Colorado Avalanche

Value call

Nathan MacKinnon (Colorado Avalanche) has one live pick today: Shots on Goal Under 4.5 that pays $162 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Shots on Goal Under 4.5 -161 (1.62) · $100→$162
Value call
Los Angeles Kings @ Colorado Avalanche
Ball Arena, Colorado, FUT · Indoor
Thu 1 Oct, 2:00AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
72 in 100
Predicted
3.3 Shots on Goal
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 71.8% · the book's price implies 61.7% · gap +10.1%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Shots on Goal71.8%—61.7%1.39+10.1%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games5/10

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AI Analysis

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Colorado Avalanche vs Los Angeles Kings: Nathan MacKinnon Under 4.5 Shots on Goal (-161)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Nathan MacKinnon has been great, but he faces a tough challenge against the Los Angeles Kings. The Kings allow only a little more than 27 shots a game, making it hard for players to rack up high numbers. On the other hand, the Avalanche score a lot and shoot even more, but MacKinnon is still likely to face tight defense. The bet is for under 4.5 shots on goal for MacKinnon, and our numbers suggest there's a good chance this could hit. It's worth noting that Colorado takes a lot of shots as a team, yet MacKinnon can still struggle to find space against a disciplined Kings defense, which makes this a risky pick.

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Pick History & Track Record

Nathan MacKinnon's lines for Thu 1 Oct

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Shots on Goal 4.5
+140 best over price · 1 bookWent over in 4 of the last 10 games

Nathan MacKinnon's shots on goal line is 4.5, best over price +140 across 1 book. He has gone over it in 4 of his last 10 games.

Shots on Goal 3.5
-125 best over price · 11 booksWent over in 6 of the last 10 games

Nathan MacKinnon's shots on goal line is 3.5, best over price -125 across 11 books. He has gone over it in 6 of his last 10 games.

Points 1.5
+105 best over price · 5 booksWent over in 3 of the last 10 games

Nathan MacKinnon's points line is 1.5, best over price +105 across 5 books. He has gone over it in 3 of his last 10 games.

Recent game log

Nathan MacKinnon has 5 goals and 5 assists (10 points) across his last 10 NHL games.

DateOppGAPSOGHitsTOI
14 Apr 26@ CGY1014021:08
13 Apr 26@ EDM0002027:57
11 Apr 26vs VGK0006021:38
9 Apr 26vs CGY1236122:23
7 Apr 26@ STL0110321:08
5 Apr 26vs STL0005021:38
4 Apr 26@ DAL1012020:47
1 Apr 26vs VAN1017424:21
30 Mar 26vs CGY1235319:20
28 Mar 26vs WPG0003122:36
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Nathan MacKinnon (Colorado Avalanche) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NHL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Nathan MacKinnon is Under 4.5 on Shots on Goal. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +10.1% on this pick. Their next game is Los Angeles Kings vs Colorado Avalanche on Thursday 1 October at Ball Arena, Colorado. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NHL betting strategy.

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