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NHL

Justin Sourdif

Washington Capitals

Value call

Justin Sourdif (Washington Capitals) has one live pick today: over 0.5 shots on goal that pays $131 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
68 in 100
Predicted
1.2 shots on goal
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 68.4% · before adjusting for past results 78.7% · the book's price implies 76.3% · gap -7.9%.

Latest Model PickFree
Pittsburgh Penguins @ Washington Capitals
Capital One Arena, Washington, FUT · Indoor
Wed 7 Oct, 7:30 PM ET
Justin Sourdif
over 0.5 shots on goal
Shots on Goal Over 0.5 -323 (1.31) · $100→$131
Value call
HIGHWins about 68 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$13.10 Odds-323
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Justin Sourdif is Over 0.5 on Shots on Goal.
On Shots on Goal, our numbers say this bet wins about 68 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 68%, the price says 76%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NHL schedule.
Model updated Oct 29, 1:13PM UTC
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Shots on Goal78.7%68.4%76.3%1.46+2.3%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games1/5
Last 10 games1/10

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AI Analysis

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Washington Capitals vs Pittsburgh Penguins: Justin Sourdif Over 0.5 Shots on Goal (-323)

Odds correct at time of publishing

The Washington Capitals have been really strong lately, winning 7 of their last 10 games. They're playing at home, where they usually feel more comfortable. The Pittsburgh Penguins, on the other hand, have only won 4 of their last 10 games, which puts them in a tougher spot. Justin Sourdif is expected to get some chances to shoot, especially with the Capitals' current form. Betting on Justin Sourdif to get over 0.5 shots on goal makes sense here. The Capitals are in a good rhythm, and Sourdif should find opportunities against the Penguins. The main risk is that Pittsburgh could tighten up defensively, but with the Capitals' recent success, Sourdif has a solid chance to take his shot.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent game log

Justin Sourdif has 1 goals and 1 assists (2 points) across his last 10 NHL games.

DateOppGAPSOGHitsTOI
24 Oct 26vs BUF0112115:26
14 Oct 26vs MTL0002216:05
13 Oct 26@ CAR0001211:29
11 Oct 26vs SEA0000111:36
9 Oct 26vs NYR0002414:07
7 Oct 26vs PIT0000415:08
3 Oct 26@ TBL1011012:24
2 Oct 26@ CAR0000013:00
14 Apr 26@ CBJ0000016:05
12 Apr 26vs PIT0001013:06
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
07 Oct 26 Pittsburgh Penguins @ Washington Capitals Shots on Goal — — — Pending
07 Oct 26 Pittsburgh Penguins @ Washington Capitals Shots on Goal — — — Pending

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About This Player

Justin Sourdif (Washington Capitals) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NHL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Justin Sourdif is Over 0.5 on Shots on Goal. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.3% on this pick. Their next game is Pittsburgh Penguins vs Washington Capitals on Wednesday 7 October at Capital One Arena, Washington. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NHL betting strategy.

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