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The latest Bet Better model pick for Dawson Mercer is Over 1.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 3 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 3%, the price says 2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NHL schedule.
Model updated Oct 1, 10:00PM UTC
NHL

Dawson Mercer

New Jersey Devils

Value call

Dawson Mercer (New Jersey Devils) has one live pick today: Goals Over 1.5 that pays $6,100 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 1.5 +6000 (61.00) · $100→$6,100
Value call
Philadelphia Flyers @ New Jersey Devils
Prudential Center, New Jersey, FUT · Indoor
Thu 1 Oct, 11:00PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
3 in 100
Predicted
0.3 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 2.9% · the book's price implies 1.6% · gap +1.3%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals2.9%—1.6%34.03+1.3%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games4/10

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AI Analysis

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New Jersey Devils vs Philadelphia Flyers: Dawson Mercer Over 1.5 Goals (+6000)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Dawson Mercer has been a bright spot for the New Jersey Devils this season, showing he can find the back of the net when it matters. The Devils average just under 2.8 goals a game, and they have taken a good number of shots. Playing at home in the Prudential Center, they tend to be more aggressive in their attack, which could work in Mercer's favor. The Philadelphia Flyers have scored slightly more goals this season, but their overall shot production is lower. There's a chance this game could be tight, and Mercer might not get as many opportunities. Still, with the potential for a high-scoring matchup, betting on Mercer to score over 1.5 goals feels worth a shot.

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Pick History & Track Record

Dawson Mercer's lines for Thu 1 Oct

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Goals 1.5
+475 best over price · 3 books

Dawson Mercer's goals line is 1.5, best over price +475 across 3 books.

Recent game log

Dawson Mercer has 5 goals and 2 assists (7 points) across his last 10 NHL games.

DateOppGAPSOGHitsTOI
14 Apr 26@ BOS0002116:25
12 Apr 26vs OTT1125018:56
11 Apr 26@ DET1013020:58
9 Apr 26vs PIT0000017:21
7 Apr 26vs PHI0001017:45
5 Apr 26@ MTL0001121:34
4 Apr 26vs MTL1013021:47
2 Apr 26vs WSH2026120:00
31 Mar 26@ NYR0001017:51
29 Mar 26vs CHI0112021:10
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Dawson Mercer (New Jersey Devils) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NHL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Dawson Mercer is Over 1.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.3% on this pick. Their next game is Philadelphia Flyers vs New Jersey Devils on Thursday 1 October at Prudential Center, New Jersey. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NHL betting strategy.

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