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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Brock Nelson is Under 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 82 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 82%, the price says 78%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NHL schedule.
Model updated Oct 6, 12:13PM UTC
NHL

Brock Nelson

Colorado Avalanche

Value call

Brock Nelson (Colorado Avalanche) has one live pick today: Goals Under 0.5 that pays $129 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Goals Under 0.5 -345 (1.29) · $100→$129
Value call
Los Angeles Kings @ Colorado Avalanche
Ball Arena, Colorado, FUT · Indoor
Thu 1 Oct, 2:00AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
82 in 100
Predicted
0.2 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 82.3% · before adjusting for past results 82.3% · the book's price implies 77.5% · gap +4.7%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals82.3%82.3%77.5%1.22+4.7%

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AI Analysis

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Colorado Avalanche vs Los Angeles Kings: Brock Nelson Under 0.5 Goals (-345)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

The Colorado Avalanche have been scoring an impressive 3.63 goals per game, making them one of the top offensive teams in the league. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Kings have struggled a bit, netting only 2.68 goals per game. This big difference in scoring power suggests that the Avalanche will likely dominate the game. Brock Nelson's chances of scoring look good, but the Kings' defense can be tricky. With the Avalanche allowing just 26.1 shots a game, it might be harder for him to find the back of the net. Even though our numbers see this as a strong pick, there's always a risk with how tight teams can play on any given night.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent game log

Brock Nelson has 1 goals and 6 assists (7 points) across his last 10 NHL games.

DateOppGAPSOGHitsTOI
3 Oct 26vs STL0001016:11
30 Sep 26vs LAK1231019:14
16 Apr 26vs SEA0001119:21
13 Apr 26@ EDM0000019:11
11 Apr 26vs VGK0112019:59
9 Apr 26vs CGY0003016:51
7 Apr 26@ STL0112019:13
5 Apr 26vs STL0110021:25
4 Apr 26@ DAL0003021:38
1 Apr 26vs VAN0112122:29
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
01 Oct 26 Los Angeles Kings @ Colorado Avalanche Goals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Brock Nelson (Colorado Avalanche) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NHL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Brock Nelson is Under 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.7% on this pick. Their next game is Los Angeles Kings vs Colorado Avalanche on Thursday 1 October at Ball Arena, Colorado. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NHL betting strategy.

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