David Pastrnak (Boston Bruins) Yes Anytime Goalscorer (+125)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Betting on David Pastrnak as an anytime goalscorer is a promising bet considering his recent performance data and model predictions. His L5 home games statistics show a strong average of 1 goal per game with an impressive hit rate of 3/3 in his most recent home games. This suggests that he has been consistently scoring in consecutive games, a trend that is likely to continue given his form. Additionally, he has an average of 3.4 shots per game, indicating that he has plenty of scoring opportunities. The model predicts a probability of 0.48, which is higher than the implied probability of 44.4%, hence presenting an edge. Pastrnak's scoring capability and current form, particularly at home games, make him a solid choice for the 'Anytime Goalscorer' market.
Jeremy Swayman (Boston Bruins) Over 24.5 Saves (-125)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Jeremy Swayman's statistical performance makes the over 24.5 total saves a solid bet. His average saves in the last five home games stand at 28, which is significantly higher than the betting line. Also, his shots against average at home is 30, indicating that he frequently faces a high volume of shots, thus increasing his chances of making more saves. Furthermore, the model prediction of 26.44 supports the likelihood of Swayman making over 24.5 saves. Considering his recent form, he has hit this mark in 5 out of his last 6 home games and 11 out of his last 14 matches overall. Hence, given Swayman's strong home performance and high save averages, there is a strong rationale for betting on him to make over 24.5 saves.
Boston Bruins vs Edmonton Oilers : Boston Bruins +1.5 (-227)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The bet on Boston Bruins +1.5 is a promising one when we consider the performance metrics of both teams. The Bruins' overall record against the Oilers is 3-2, demonstrating their ability to compete effectively against Edmonton. Despite their poor home record in the last 5 games (1-4), the Bruins have averaged 2 goals per game overall compared to a 2.6 goals average for the Oilers in their away games. With a slightly better defensive performance, as indicated by a lower average of shotsagainst (31 vs 29.8), the Bruins could keep the scoring tight. The model prediction of 0.03, along with the implied probability of 69.4%, further backs the likelihood of the Bruins not losing by more than 1 goal. Therefore, a +1.5 puck line for the Bruins appears to be a statistically reasoned bet.