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The latest Bet Better model pick for Will Riley is Under 3.5 on Assists.
On the Assists market the model assigns a model win probability of 72%, versus the book's implied 46%, for a model edge of +25.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:03PM UTC
NBA

Will Riley

Washington Wizards

+25.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Assists Under 3.5 +116 (2.16)
+25.7% Edge
Chicago Bulls @ Washington Wizards
Capital One Arena, Washington, DC · Indoor
Tue 7 Apr, 11:00PM
DAY-TO-DAY
The Wizards are shutting down Riley (rest) for the team's final three Summer League games, per Josh Robbins of The Athletic.
updated Jul 14, 7:05PM UTC · 6d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
72.0%
Implied Probability
46.3%
Model Edge
+25.7%
Predicted Value
2.5 Assists

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Assists72.0%—46.3%1.39+25.7%

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AI Analysis

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Will Riley (Washington Wizards) Under 3.5 Assists (+116)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Wizards gear up to host the Chicago Bulls, all eyes will be on Will Riley's playmaking ability, particularly when it comes to assists. While he has shown flashes of brilliance, taking the under on 3.5 assists feels like the right move here. Riley has only surpassed this number once in his last five games, and home court hasn't been particularly friendly either, with a solid hit rate of 10 out of his last 13 games falling under this mark. The Bulls, known for their defensive tenacity, will likely clamp down on Riley, making it harder for him to distribute the ball effectively. With an expected stat value of just 2.47 assists, it's clear that the matchup isn't in his favor. Coupled with an implied probability of 46.3%, betting the under seems not just wise, but a strategic play in this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
3-Pointers MadeSeason marketNo line posted

Will Riley has active 3-Pointers Made prop markets. Per-game form is being refreshed.

AssistsSeason marketNo line posted

Will Riley has active Assists prop markets. Per-game form is being refreshed.

PointsSeason marketNo line posted

Will Riley has active Points prop markets. Per-game form is being refreshed.

Points + AssistsSeason marketNo line posted

Will Riley has active Points + Assists prop markets. Per-game form is being refreshed.

Points + ReboundsSeason marketNo line posted

Will Riley has active Points + Rebounds prop markets. Per-game form is being refreshed.

Pts + Reb + AstSeason marketNo line posted

Will Riley has active Pts + Reb + Ast prop markets. Per-game form is being refreshed.

ReboundsSeason marketNo line posted

Will Riley has active Rebounds prop markets. Per-game form is being refreshed.

Rebounds + AssistsSeason marketNo line posted

Will Riley has active Rebounds + Assists prop markets. Per-game form is being refreshed.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
07 Apr 26 Chicago Bulls @ Washington Wizards Assists 3.5 Under +116 ✓ HIT
07 Apr 26 Chicago Bulls @ Washington Wizards 3-Pointers 1.5 Under +154 ✓ HIT
07 Apr 26 Chicago Bulls @ Washington Wizards Points 21.5 Under -104 ✓ HIT
07 Apr 26 Chicago Bulls @ Washington Wizards Pts + Rebs — — — Pending
07 Apr 26 Chicago Bulls @ Washington Wizards Pts + Rebs — — — Pending
07 Apr 26 Chicago Bulls @ Washington Wizards Pts + Rebs — — — Pending

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About This Player

Will Riley (Washington Wizards) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Will Riley is Under 3.5 on Assists. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +25.7% on this pick. Their next game is Chicago Bulls vs Washington Wizards on Tuesday 7 April at Capital One Arena, Washington. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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