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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Deandre Ayton is Under 24.5 on Pts + Rebs.
On the Pts + Rebs market the model assigns a model win probability of 76%, versus the book's implied 53%, for a model edge of +22.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:03PM UTC
NBA

Deandre Ayton

Los Angeles Lakers

+22.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Rebs Under 24.5 -112 (1.89)
+22.9% Edge
Los Angeles Lakers @ Dallas Mavericks
American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX · Indoor
Sun 5 Apr, 11:30PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
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Model Probability
75.8%
Implied Probability
52.9%
Model Edge
+22.9%
Predicted Value
19.7 Pts + Rebs

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Rebs75.8%52.9%1.32+22.9%

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AI Analysis

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Deandre Ayton (Los Angeles Lakers) Under 24.5 Points + Rebounds (-112)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As Deandre Ayton takes the court against the Mavericks, we're eyeing the under on his combined points and rebounds at 24.5. Recent trends tell a compelling story: over his last five games, Ayton has averaged just 12 points and 6.8 rebounds, far from the mark we need him to hit. When on the road, those numbers dip further to 10.4 points and 6.2 rebounds, indicating he's not finding his groove away from home.Facing a Dallas team that's solid defensively, Ayton's average of 12 points against them in away matchups adds another layer of concern. With his overall hit rate showing he's gone under in 9 of his last 10 games, it's clear that something's off in his game. The data suggests a perfect storm for a subpar performance, making the under on Ayton's points and rebounds a smart play tonight.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 2 of last 3(67%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
Blocks2024-25 · formNo line posted
80%hit · L10
1.0avg · last 10
L51.2Szn1.0Home1.2Away0.7Best5
1+63%
2+25%
3+8%
Game log vs O 0.5avg 1 · hi 2 · lo 0
2010111211

Deandre Ayton is averaging 1.0 blocks over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 1.0, best 5). He clears 1+ in 63% of 2024-25 games.

Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
17.1avg · last 10
L513.4Szn14.4Home15.3Away13.4Best35
4+98%
9+80%
14+63%
19+25%
24+8%
Game log vs O 13.5avg 17.1 · hi 25 · lo 6
152221222425818610

Deandre Ayton is averaging 17.1 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 14.4, best 35). He clears 14+ in 63% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
19.2avg · last 10
L515.4Szn16.0Home17.2Away14.6Best38
6+95%
11+75%
16+58%
21+30%
26+8%
Game log vs O 15.5avg 19.2 · hi 27 · lo 8
1724232526271022810

Deandre Ayton is averaging 19.2 points + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 16.0, best 38). He clears 16+ in 58% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
27.9avg · last 10
L523.6Szn24.6Home25.4Away23.6Best52
15+83%
20+73%
25+55%
30+30%
35+13%
Game log vs O 24.5avg 27.9 · hi 45 · lo 10
28373530314517262010

Deandre Ayton is averaging 27.9 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 24.6, best 52). He clears 25+ in 55% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
05 Apr 26 Los Angeles Lakers @ Dallas Mavericks Pts + Rebs 24.5 Under -112 ✓ HIT
05 Apr 26 Los Angeles Lakers @ Dallas Mavericks Points 15.5 Under -103 ✓ HIT
01 Mar 26 Los Angeles Lakers @ Golden State Warriors Blocks 0.5 Over -192 ✗ MISS

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About This Player

Deandre Ayton (Los Angeles Lakers) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Deandre Ayton is Under 24.5 on Pts + Rebs. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +22.9% on this pick. Their next game is Los Angeles Lakers vs Dallas Mavericks on Sunday 5 April at American Airlines Center, Dallas. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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