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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Deandre Ayton is Under 24.5 on Points + Rebounds.
On Points + Rebounds, our numbers say this bet wins about 76 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 76%, implied 52%, edge +24.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Aug 31, 8:20PM UTC
NBA

Deandre Ayton

Los Angeles Lakers

+24.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Rebs Under 24.5 -108 (1.93) · $100→$193
+24.0% Edge
Los Angeles Lakers @ Dallas Mavericks
American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX · Indoor
Sun 5 Apr, 11:30PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
76 in 100
Predicted
19.7 Pts + Rebs
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 75.8% · the book's price implies 51.8% · gap +24.0%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Rebs75.8%51.8%1.32+24.0%

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AI Analysis

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Deandre Ayton (Los Angeles Lakers) Under 24.5 Points + Rebounds (-108)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Los Angeles Lakers gear up to face the Dallas Mavericks, Deandre Ayton's prop bet of under 24.5 points and rebounds is looking particularly inviting. Over his last five games, Ayton has averaged just 12 points and 6.8 rebounds, falling well short of that threshold. When he's on the road, those numbers drop even further to 10.4 points and 6.2 rebounds. The Mavericks, a formidable defensive team, have done a great job limiting big men, evidenced by Ayton's average of just 12 points against them in their last meeting. Plus, Ayton's recent form shows a hit rate of 9 out of 10 for unders, and he has hit the under in all 11 of his last away games. With the pressure of playing in Dallas and the Mavericks' tight defense, it's tough to see Ayton breaking through that 24.5 barrier tonight.

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Pick History & Track Record

Deandre Ayton — 2024-25 season averages

Over 40 games in the 2024-25 season, Deandre Ayton averaged 14.4 points, 10.2 rebounds and 1.6 assists in 30.3 minutes per game, shooting 56.6% from the field and 18.8% from three-point range.

14.4
PPG
10.2
RPG
1.6
APG
0.8
SPG
1.0
BPG
30.3
MPG
56.6%
FG%
18.8%
3P%

Deandre Ayton — recent role

Across his last 5 games, Deandre Ayton has played 29.2 minutes per game and started 100% of them.

29.2
MPG (L5)
13.4
PPG (L5)
100%
Started

Deandre Ayton — points hit rate

Deandre Ayton has scored over 15.5 points in 54% of 264 career games.

o11.572%
o12.569%
o15.554%
o20.522%

Deandre Ayton — home vs away scoring

At home Deandre Ayton averages 15.3 points per game; on the road, 13.4. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

15.3
PPG at home
13.4
PPG on the road

Deandre Ayton — scoring by opponent

Deandre Ayton scores most against the WSH, averaging 21.7 points per game in that matchup.

21.7
WSH
19.6
CHI
19.1
DET
18.5
BKN
18.3
SAC
17.9
MIL

Deandre Ayton — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, Deandre Ayton has averaged 17.1 points, 10.8 rebounds and 2.1 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
10 Feb@ DEN191000
8 Feb@ MIN326142
6 Febvs SAC311884
4 Febvs IND22892
3 Febvs PHX4225202
1 Febvs PHX332472
30 Janvs ORL352283
28 Janvs MIL3421142
21 Jan@ MIA3422152
19 Janvs CHI3715132
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
01 Mar 26 Los Angeles Lakers @ Golden State Warriors Blocks Pending

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About This Player

Deandre Ayton (Los Angeles Lakers) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Deandre Ayton is Under 24.5 on Points + Rebounds. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +24.0% on this pick. Their next game is Los Angeles Lakers vs Dallas Mavericks on Sunday 5 April at American Airlines Center, Dallas. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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