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The latest Bet Better model pick for Deandre Ayton is Under 24.5 on Points + Rebounds.
On the Points + Rebounds market the model assigns a model win probability of 76%, versus the book's implied 52%, for a model edge of +23.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 6:55AM UTC
NBA

Deandre Ayton

Los Angeles Lakers

+23.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Rebs Under 24.5 -110 (1.91) · $100→$191
+23.4% Edge
Los Angeles Lakers @ Dallas Mavericks
American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX · Indoor
Sun 5 Apr, 11:30PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
75.8%
Implied Probability
52.4%
Model Edge
+23.4%
Predicted Value
19.7 Pts + Rebs

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Rebs75.8%—52.4%1.32+23.4%

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AI Analysis

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Deandre Ayton (Los Angeles Lakers) Under 24.5 Points + Rebounds (-110)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Lakers gear up for a showdown against the Mavericks, all eyes will be on Deandre Ayton. However, betting on him to go over 24.5 points and rebounds may not be the safest play. Recent trends suggest he's been struggling away from home, averaging just 10.4 points and 6.2 rebounds over his last five road games-well below that threshold. Against Dallas, where he's averaged only 12 points and 10 rebounds in their last matchups, the numbers simply don't favor a big night.Moreover, with an impressive 9 out of 10 hit rate for the Under in his last ten games, and a perfect 11 out of 11 away, it's clear that Ayton's current form isn't aligning with the lofty expectations set for him. With the Mavericks' defense tightening up, it's prudent to lean towards the Under on Ayton's combined points and rebounds this game.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Blocks2024-25 · formNo line posted
80%hit · L10
1.0avg · last 10
L51.2Szn1.0Home1.2Away0.7Best5
1+63%
2+25%
3+8%
Game log vs O 0.5avg 1 · hi 2 · lo 0
2010111211

Deandre Ayton is averaging 1.0 blocks over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 1.0, best 5). He clears 1+ in 63% of 2024-25 games.

Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
17.1avg · last 10
L513.4Szn14.4Home15.3Away13.4Best35
4+98%
9+80%
14+63%
19+25%
24+8%
Game log vs O 13.5avg 17.1 · hi 25 · lo 6
152221222425818610

Deandre Ayton is averaging 17.1 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 14.4, best 35). He clears 14+ in 63% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
19.2avg · last 10
L515.4Szn16.0Home17.2Away14.6Best38
6+95%
11+75%
16+58%
21+30%
26+8%
Game log vs O 15.5avg 19.2 · hi 27 · lo 8
1724232526271022810

Deandre Ayton is averaging 19.2 points + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 16.0, best 38). He clears 16+ in 58% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
27.9avg · last 10
L523.6Szn24.6Home25.4Away23.6Best52
15+83%
20+73%
25+55%
30+30%
35+13%
Game log vs O 24.5avg 27.9 · hi 45 · lo 10
28373530314517262010

Deandre Ayton is averaging 27.9 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 24.6, best 52). He clears 25+ in 55% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
01 Mar 26 Los Angeles Lakers @ Golden State Warriors Blocks 0.5 Over -192 ✗ MISS

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About This Player

Deandre Ayton (Los Angeles Lakers) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Deandre Ayton is Under 24.5 on Points + Rebounds. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +23.4% on this pick. Their next game is Los Angeles Lakers vs Dallas Mavericks on Sunday 5 April at American Airlines Center, Dallas. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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