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The latest Bet Better model pick for Tobias Harris is Over 19.5 on Points + Rebounds.
On Points + Rebounds, our numbers say this bet wins about 42 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 42%, implied 25%, edge +16.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Aug 31, 7:18PM UTC
NBA

Tobias Harris

Detroit Pistons

+16.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Rebs Over 19.5 +298 (3.98) · $100→$398
+16.8% Edge
Detroit Pistons @ Charlotte Hornets
Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC · Indoor
Fri 10 Apr, 11:00PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
42 in 100
Predicted
18.1 Pts + Rebs
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 42.0% · the book's price implies 25.1% · gap +16.8%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Rebs42.0%—25.1%2.38+16.8%

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AI Analysis

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Tobias Harris (Detroit Pistons) Over 19.5 Points + Rebounds (+298)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Pistons gear up to face the Hornets, all eyes should be on Tobias Harris, especially with the points and rebounds line set at 19.5. Harris has proven to be a reliable scorer, averaging 15.4 points and 5.2 rebounds in his last five away games. When he goes up against the Hornets, he has consistently delivered, averaging nearly 19.4 points and 6.4 rebounds in their recent matchups. With a solid hit rate of 5 out of his last 8 games and 2 of 3 on the road, Harris is trending in the right direction. Plus, facing a Charlotte defense that struggles to contain versatile forwards like him, we can expect him to surpass that threshold. Given his recent form and his history against the Hornets, taking the over on 19.5 points plus rebounds feels like a savvy play in this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Tobias Harris — 2024-25 season averages

Over 79 games in the 2024-25 season, Tobias Harris averaged 13.9 points, 6.1 rebounds and 2.1 assists in 32.1 minutes per game, shooting 47.7% from the field and 35.2% from three-point range.

13.9
PPG
6.1
RPG
2.1
APG
1.0
SPG
0.8
BPG
32.1
MPG
47.7%
FG%
35.2%
3P%

Tobias Harris — recent role

Across his last 5 games, Tobias Harris has played 38.4 minutes per game and started 100% of them.

38.4
MPG (L5)
13.8
PPG (L5)
100%
Started

Tobias Harris — points hit rate

Tobias Harris has scored over 15.5 points in 55% of 815 career games.

o11.575%
o12.571%
o15.555%
o20.528%
o25.510%

Tobias Harris — home vs away scoring

At home Tobias Harris averages 15.1 points per game; on the road, 12.6. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

15.1
PPG at home
12.6
PPG on the road

Tobias Harris — scoring by opponent

Tobias Harris scores most against the CHA, averaging 21.4 points per game in that matchup.

21.4
CHA
20.5
GS
20.1
SAC
19.9
PHX
19.8
ATL
19.6
IND

Tobias Harris — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, Tobias Harris has averaged 14.2 points, 5.9 rebounds and 1.1 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
1 Mayvs NY391450
29 Apr@ NY431782
27 Aprvs NY351880
24 Aprvs NY32560
21 Apr@ NY4315131
19 Apr@ NY402560
13 Apr@ MIL10431
11 Aprvs MIL301743
10 Aprvs NY281722
2 Apr@ OKC221042
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Mar 26 Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers Pts + Rebs 18.5 Over -128 ✓ HIT
29 Nov 25 Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons Points 11.5 Over -132 ✓ HIT
24 Feb 26 San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons Points — — — Pending
20 Feb 26 Detroit Pistons @ New York Knicks Pts + Rebs — — — Pending

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About This Player

Tobias Harris (Detroit Pistons) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tobias Harris is Over 19.5 on Points + Rebounds. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +16.8% on this pick. Their next game is Detroit Pistons vs Charlotte Hornets on Friday 10 April at Spectrum Center, Charlotte. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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