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The latest Bet Better model pick for Tobias Harris is Over 19.5 on Pts + Rebs.
On the Pts + Rebs market the model assigns a model win probability of 41%, versus the book's implied 25%, for a model edge of +16.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:07PM UTC
NBA

Tobias Harris

Detroit Pistons

+16.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Rebs Over 19.5 +299 (3.99)
+16.4% Edge
Detroit Pistons @ Charlotte Hornets
Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC · Indoor
Fri 10 Apr, 11:00PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
41.5%
Implied Probability
25.1%
Model Edge
+16.4%
Predicted Value
18.0 Pts + Rebs

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Rebs41.5%—25.1%2.41+16.4%

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AI Analysis

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Tobias Harris (Detroit Pistons) Over 19.5 Points + Rebounds (+299)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Tobias Harris is primed for a standout performance against the Charlotte Hornets, and betting on him to go Over 19.5 points and rebounds feels like a savvy move. Despite averaging 12.2 points and 3.6 rebounds over his last five games, his away numbers tell a different story-15.4 points and 5.2 rebounds per game. He's shown he can ramp it up against the Hornets, posting an impressive average of 19.4 points in their recent matchups, with a solid 6.4 rebounds to boot.What's even more compelling is his recent form; he's hit this combined total in five of his last eight games, including two of three on the road. With the Pistons needing to rise to the occasion away from home, expect Harris to seize the moment and exceed that 19.5 threshold as he steps up in a crucial matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
14.2avg · last 10
L513.8Szn13.9Home15.1Away12.6Best39
4+97%
9+84%
14+53%
19+18%
24+5%
Game log vs O 13.5avg 14.2 · hi 25 · lo 4
101717425155181714

Tobias Harris is averaging 14.2 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 13.9, best 39). He clears 14+ in 53% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
15.3avg · last 10
L514.4Szn16.0Home17.1Away14.8Best41
6+95%
11+80%
16+54%
21+19%
26+3%
Game log vs O 15.5avg 15.3 · hi 25 · lo 5
121920525165181914

Tobias Harris is averaging 15.3 points + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 16.0, best 41). He clears 16+ in 54% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
20.1avg · last 10
L521.8Szn19.9Home21.0Away18.8Best50
10+91%
15+78%
20+54%
25+29%
30+8%
Game log vs O 19.5avg 20.1 · hi 31 · lo 7
1419217312811262519

Tobias Harris is averaging 20.1 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 19.9, best 50). He clears 20+ in 54% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
10 Apr 26 Detroit Pistons @ Charlotte Hornets Pts + Rebs 19.5 Over +299 ✗ MISS
10 Apr 26 Detroit Pistons @ Charlotte Hornets Pts + Rebs 14.5 Over -125 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Tobias Harris (Detroit Pistons) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tobias Harris is Over 19.5 on Pts + Rebs. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +16.4% on this pick. Their next game is Detroit Pistons vs Charlotte Hornets on Friday 10 April at Spectrum Center, Charlotte. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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