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The latest Bet Better model pick for Mark Williams is Over 15.5 on Pts + Rebs.
On the Pts + Rebs market the model assigns a model win probability of 61%, versus the book's implied 46%, for a model edge of +15.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:03PM UTC
NBA

Mark Williams

Phoenix Suns

+15.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Rebs Over 15.5 +118 (2.18)
+15.5% Edge
Phoenix Suns @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK · Indoor
Sun 19 Apr, 7:30PM
DAY-TO-DAY
Williams (foot) plans to sign a three-year, $38 million contract to remain with the Suns, Shams Charania of ESPN reports.
updated Jun 26, 12:10AM UTC · 25d old
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Model Probability
61.4%
Implied Probability
45.9%
Model Edge
+15.5%
Predicted Value
17.5 Pts + Rebs

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Rebs61.4%—45.9%1.63+15.5%

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AI Analysis

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Mark Williams (Phoenix Suns) Over 15.5 Points + Rebounds (+118)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Phoenix Suns gear up to face the Oklahoma City Thunder, Mark Williams stands out as a prime candidate to exceed 15.5 combined points and rebounds. Recent performances tell a compelling story: Williams has been a force away from home, averaging nearly 11 points and 9.5 rebounds in his last five games on the road. Against the Thunder, his past matchups show he's consistently found a rhythm, averaging 11 points and 7.2 rebounds. With the Suns relying on him to provide a spark, he's rapidly turned into a reliable contributor, hitting this mark in four of his last six games overall, and impressively, five out of six on the road. As the stakes rise, expect Williams to step up. With an expected stat value of 17.5, it feels like a no-brainer to take the over on his points and rebounds tonight.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 4(75%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
23.9avg · last 10
L525.4Szn25.4Home22.8Away28.0Best47
15+89%
20+73%
25+45%
30+34%
35+18%
Game log vs O 24.5avg 23.9 · hi 33 · lo 9
9331921303128311522

Mark Williams is averaging 23.9 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 25.4, best 47). He clears 25+ in 45% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
10.2avg · last 10
L510.6Szn10.2Home9.5Away10.8Best24
6+82%
8+80%
10+52%
12+43%
14+18%
Game log vs O 9.5avg 10.2 · hi 14 · lo 5
5145131213129712

Mark Williams is averaging 10.2 rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 10.2, best 24). He clears 10+ in 52% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Apr 26 Houston Rockets @ Phoenix Suns Rebounds 7.5 Under -102 ✗ MISS
08 Apr 26 Houston Rockets @ Phoenix Suns Rebounds 10.5 Under -417 ✓ HIT
05 Apr 26 Phoenix Suns @ Chicago Bulls Rebounds 10.5 Under -417 ✓ HIT
05 Apr 26 Phoenix Suns @ Chicago Bulls Pts + Rebs — — — Pending

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About This Player

Mark Williams (Phoenix Suns) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Mark Williams is Over 15.5 on Pts + Rebs. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +15.5% on this pick. Their next game is Phoenix Suns vs Oklahoma City Thunder on Sunday 19 April at Paycom Center, Oklahoma City. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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