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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Larry Nance Jr. is Under 3.5 on Rebounds.
On the Rebounds market the model assigns a model win probability of 72%, versus the book's implied 51%, for a model edge of +20.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Jul 29, 4:02AM UTC
NBA

Larry Nance Jr.

Cleveland Cavaliers

+20.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Rebounds Under 3.5 -104 (1.96)
+20.8% Edge
Indiana Pacers @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland, OH · Indoor
Sun 5 Apr, 10:00PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
71.8%
Implied Probability
51.0%
Model Edge
+20.8%
Predicted Value
2.1 Rebounds

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Rebounds71.8%51.0%1.39+20.8%

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AI Analysis

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Larry Nance Jr. (Cleveland Cavaliers) Under 3.5 Rebounds (-104)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

In the upcoming clash between the Cavaliers and the Pacers, targeting Larry Nance Jr. for under 3.5 rebounds feels like a savvy play. Although Nance has faced the Pacers decently in the past, averaging four boards against them, his recent form tells a different story. Over his last five outings, he's only managed 2.2 rebounds per game both overall and at home, which is well below our target. Dig deeper, and you'll see that he's hit the under in an impressive 17 of his last 20 contests, and at home, he's converted that trend in 10 of 11 games. With an expected stat value of just 2.1 rebounds, it seems that Nance is not in a position to dominate the boards. Given the circumstances, betting on him to stay under 3.5 rebounds is a compelling choice worth considering.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 2 of last 3(67%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
7.0avg · last 10
L59.2Szn8.5Home7.4Away9.7Best23
3+75%
8+50%
13+29%
18+8%
Game log vs O 7.5avg 7 · hi 14 · lo 0
10460412111148

Larry Nance Jr. is averaging 7.0 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 8.5, best 23). He clears 8+ in 50% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
11.9avg · last 10
L513.8Szn12.8Home11.2Away14.6Best35
3+92%
8+75%
13+46%
18+33%
23+4%
Game log vs O 12.5avg 11.9 · hi 22 · lo 4
208859224122011

Larry Nance Jr. is averaging 11.9 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 12.8, best 35). He clears 13+ in 46% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
4.9avg · last 10
L54.6Szn4.3Home3.8Away4.9Best19
2+83%
4+46%
6+25%
8+17%
Game log vs O 3.5avg 4.9 · hi 10 · lo 1
104255103163

Larry Nance Jr. is averaging 4.9 rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 4.3, best 19). He clears 4+ in 46% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
05 Apr 26 Indiana Pacers @ Cleveland Cavaliers Rebounds 3.5 Under -104 ✓ HIT
05 Apr 26 Indiana Pacers @ Cleveland Cavaliers Pts + Rebs 10.5 Under -154 ✓ HIT
05 Apr 26 Indiana Pacers @ Cleveland Cavaliers Points 5.5 Under -104 ✗ MISS

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About This Player

Larry Nance Jr. (Cleveland Cavaliers) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Larry Nance Jr. is Under 3.5 on Rebounds. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +20.8% on this pick. Their next game is Indiana Pacers vs Cleveland Cavaliers on Sunday 5 April at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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