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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Larry Nance Jr. is Under 3.5 on Rebounds.
On Rebounds, our numbers say this bet wins about 72 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 72%, implied 51%, edge +20.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Aug 18, 6:18AM UTC
NBA

Larry Nance Jr.

Cleveland Cavaliers

+20.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Rebounds Under 3.5 -104 (1.96) · $100→$196
+20.8% Edge
Indiana Pacers @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland, OH · Indoor
Sun 5 Apr, 10:00PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
72 in 100
Predicted
2.1 Rebounds
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 71.8% · the book's price implies 51.0% · gap +20.8%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Rebounds71.8%51.0%1.39+20.8%

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AI Analysis

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Larry Nance Jr. (Cleveland Cavaliers) Under 3.5 Rebounds (-104)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

In the upcoming clash between the Cavaliers and the Pacers, targeting Larry Nance Jr. for under 3.5 rebounds feels like a savvy play. Although Nance has faced the Pacers decently in the past, averaging four boards against them, his recent form tells a different story. Over his last five outings, he's only managed 2.2 rebounds per game both overall and at home, which is well below our target. Dig deeper, and you'll see that he's hit the under in an impressive 17 of his last 20 contests, and at home, he's converted that trend in 10 of 11 games. With an expected stat value of just 2.1 rebounds, it seems that Nance is not in a position to dominate the boards. Given the circumstances, betting on him to stay under 3.5 rebounds is a compelling choice worth considering.

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Pick History & Track Record

Larry Nance Jr. — 2024-25 season averages

Over 24 games in the 2024-25 season, Larry Nance Jr. averaged 8.5 points, 4.3 rebounds and 1.6 assists in 19.3 minutes per game, shooting 51.6% from the field and 44.7% from three-point range.

8.5
PPG
4.3
RPG
1.6
APG
0.8
SPG
0.5
BPG
19.3
MPG
51.6%
FG%
44.7%
3P%

Larry Nance Jr. — recent role

Across his last 5 games, Larry Nance Jr. has played 19.6 minutes per game and started 0% of them.

19.6
MPG (L5)
9.2
PPG (L5)
0%
Started

Larry Nance Jr. — home vs away scoring

At home Larry Nance Jr. averages 7.4 points per game; on the road, 9.7. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

7.4
PPG at home
9.7
PPG on the road

Larry Nance Jr. — scoring by opponent

Larry Nance Jr. scores most against the MIL, averaging 11.6 points per game in that matchup.

11.6
MIL
10.5
BKN
9.7
BOS
9.5
ATL
9.5
MIA
9.3
WSH

Larry Nance Jr. — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, Larry Nance Jr. has averaged 7.0 points, 4.9 rebounds and 1.5 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
10 Feb@ ORL19831
8 Feb@ WSH221461
7 Febvs MIL201114
5 Febvs SA17131
3 Feb@ DET2012102
1 Feb@ IND19451
30 Jan@ CLE15052
28 Janvs HOU20621
25 Janvs TOR20441
28 Decvs MIA2710101
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Larry Nance Jr. (Cleveland Cavaliers) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Larry Nance Jr. is Under 3.5 on Rebounds. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +20.8% on this pick. Their next game is Indiana Pacers vs Cleveland Cavaliers on Sunday 5 April at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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