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The latest Bet Better model pick for Yoshinobu Yamamoto is Under 4.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed.
On the Pitcher - Hits Allowed market the model assigns a model win probability of 73%, versus the book's implied 43%, for a model edge of +29.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:12PM UTC
MLB

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

LAD

+29.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Hits Allowed Under 4.5 +130 (2.30)
+29.8% Edge
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, California · Outdoor
Sun 5 Jul, 11:20PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
73.3%
Implied Probability
43.5%
Model Edge
+29.8%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Hits Allowed73.3%—43.5%1.37+29.8%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games1/5
Last 10 games3/10

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AI Analysis

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Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (+130)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Dodgers gear up to face the Padres, all eyes will be on Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who’s been a revelation on the mound this season. With a knack for limiting hard contact, Yamamoto has consistently silenced opposing hitters, boasting a remarkable ability to keep hits at bay. In his recent outings, he’s averaged just over three hits allowed per game, which bodes well given his impressive strikeout rate and command. The Padres, while potent on offense, have struggled against elite pitching, especially when it comes to making consistent contact. Add to that the Dodgers’ stellar defensive support, and it's easy to see why the under on hits allowed is appealing here. With Yamamoto showing such control and the Padres grappling with their rhythm, expecting him to hold them under 4.5 hits feels not just reasonable, but quite likely. Keep an eye on this matchup; it’s shaping up for a masterclass in pitching.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
Streak7L2090%
O 3.580%
O 4.560%
O 5.550%
O 6.540%
O 7.540%

Yoshinobu Yamamoto MLB strikeouts: cleared over 3.5 in 80% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted
90%hit L10
Streak9L2095%
O 1.590%
O 2.580%
O 3.550%
O 4.530%

Yoshinobu Yamamoto MLB hits allowed: cleared over 1.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10
L2080%
O 0.570%
O 1.540%
O 2.520%

Yoshinobu Yamamoto MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 70% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Earned RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
0.6avg earned runs · L5

Yoshinobu Yamamoto MLB earned runs: averaging 0.6 earned runs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
17.4avg outs · L5
Streak3L2050%

Yoshinobu Yamamoto MLB outs: averaging 17.4 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Yoshinobu Yamamoto is Under 4.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +29.8% on this pick. Their next game is San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers on Sunday 5 July at Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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