Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Troy Melton is Under 2.5 on Pitcher - Earned Runs.
On the Pitcher - Earned Runs market the model assigns a model win probability of 87%, versus the book's implied 61%, for a model edge of +25.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Aug 5, 5:11AM UTC
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Earned Runs
Under 2.5
-159 (1.63)
+25.2% Edge
Detroit Tigers
@
Seattle Mariners
T-Mobile Park, Seattle, Washington · Indoor
Wed 5 Aug, 1:40AM
Confirmed probable starter
Probable SP vs DET @ SEA
updated Aug 5, 1:40AM UTC
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Implied Probability
61.3%
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Pitcher - Earned Runs | 86.5% | — | 61.3% | 1.16 | +25.2% |
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| Window | Hit Rate |
|---|
| Last 3 games | 0/3 |
| Last 5 games | 0/3 |
| Last 10 games | 0/3 |
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Troy Melton (DET) Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-159)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Seattle Mariners play Detroit Tigers in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Troy Melton (DET) Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-159). That is a Earned Runs bet. It was priced at -159 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $16.29 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Betting angles
Markets & formPitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
Troy Melton MLB strikeoutsseason and recent-form profile.
Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted Troy Melton MLB hits allowed: cleared over 4.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.
Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted Troy Melton MLB walks: cleared over 1.5 in 75% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.
Pitcher - Earned RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted Troy Melton MLB earned runs: cleared over 2.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Troy Melton (DET) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Troy Melton is Under 2.5 on Pitcher - Earned Runs. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +25.2% on this pick. Their next game is Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners on Wednesday 5 August at T-Mobile Park, Seattle. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.
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