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The latest Bet Better model pick for Ryan Pepiot is Over 1.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed.
On the Pitcher - Hits Allowed market the model assigns a model win probability of 95%, versus the book's implied 93%, for a model edge of +2.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:30PM UTC
MLB

Ryan Pepiot

TBR

+2.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Hits Allowed Over 1.5 -1250 (1.08)
+2.4% Edge
Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles
Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, Maryland · Outdoor
Tue 23 Sep, 10:35PM
OUT
Pepiot will undergo surgery on his right hip May 13 and miss the rest of the 2026 season, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.
updated May 8, 11:02AM UTC · 74d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
94.9%
Implied Probability
92.6%
Model Edge
+2.4%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Hits Allowed94.9%—92.6%1.05+2.4%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games6/10

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AI Analysis

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Ryan Pepiot (TBR) Over 1.5 Hits Allowed (-1250)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Ryan Pepiot for Over 1.5 in the Pitcher Hits Allowed market is backed by his consistent performance data. His last five games show an average of 6.4 hits allowed overall and 4.8 hits allowed when playing away. Specifically against the Baltimore Orioles, his average hits allowed rise to 7.5. These numbers are significantly higher than the 1.5 line set for this bet. Additionally, Pepiot's current hit streaks, both overall and away, stand at 17 and 14 respectively, further supporting the trend of him allowing more than 1.5 hits. While his average innings pitched and outs are relatively stable, the higher hits allowed average suggests that the opposing teams frequently manage to score hits off his pitches. This consistent pattern makes the Over 1.5 bet a statistically sound choice.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
Streak2L2089%
O 2.580%
O 3.580%
O 4.550%
O 5.550%
O 6.540%
O 7.530%

Ryan Pepiot MLB strikeouts: cleared over 2.5 in 80% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted
100%hit L10
Streak17L2095%
O 1.5100%
O 2.590%
O 3.580%
O 4.560%
O 5.550%
O 6.510%

Ryan Pepiot MLB hits allowed: cleared over 1.5 in 100% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
90%hit L10
Streak7L2090%
O 0.590%
O 1.570%
O 2.540%
O 3.510%

Ryan Pepiot MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Earned RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
3avg earned runs · L5
Streak3

Ryan Pepiot MLB earned runs: averaging 3 earned runs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
16.8avg outs · L5

Ryan Pepiot MLB outs: averaging 16.8 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Ryan Pepiot (TBR) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Ryan Pepiot is Over 1.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.4% on this pick. Their next game is Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles on Tuesday 23 September at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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