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The latest Bet Better model pick for Ryan Pepiot is Over 1.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed.
On Pitcher - Hits Allowed, our numbers say this bet wins about 95 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 95%, implied 93%, edge +2.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.

Recent form on the board

Over 1.50 Hlanded 10 of the last 10
Over 1.50 Hlanded 10 of the last 10
Over 1.50 Hlanded 10 of the last 10

Graded from real results — only lines with recent form are shown.

Model updated Aug 31, 5:59AM UTC
MLB

Ryan Pepiot

TBR

+2.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Hits Allowed Over 1.5 -1250 (1.08) · $100→$108
+2.4% Edge
Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles
Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, Maryland · Outdoor
Tue 23 Sep, 10:35PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb total-runs unders: 935 of 1,976 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
OUT
Pepiot will undergo surgery on his right hip May 13 and miss the rest of the 2026 season, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.
updated May 8, 11:02AM UTC · 114d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
95 in 100
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 94.9% · the book's price implies 92.6% · gap +2.4%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Hits Allowed94.9%—92.6%1.05+2.4%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games7/10

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AI Analysis

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Ryan Pepiot (TBR) Over 1.5 Hits Allowed (-1250)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Ryan Pepiot for Over 1.5 in the Pitcher Hits Allowed market is backed by his consistent performance data. His last five games show an average of 6.4 hits allowed overall and 4.8 hits allowed when playing away. Specifically against the Baltimore Orioles, his average hits allowed rise to 7.5. These numbers are significantly higher than the 1.5 line set for this bet. Additionally, Pepiot's current hit streaks, both overall and away, stand at 17 and 14 respectively, further supporting the trend of him allowing more than 1.5 hits. While his average innings pitched and outs are relatively stable, the higher hits allowed average suggests that the opposing teams frequently manage to score hits off his pitches. This consistent pattern makes the Over 1.5 bet a statistically sound choice.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent form (last 5 games)

Ryan Pepiot is averaging 6.4 hits, 1.6 home runs and 0.0 RBIs per game over his last 5 games.

6.4
Hits
1.6
HR
0.0
RBI
3.2
Runs
2.0
Walks
6.2
Ks

Hit-rate ladder: H

Ryan Pepiot has gone over 1.5 H in 100% of his last 10 games, and the hit rate drops as the line rises.

o1.5100%
o2.590%
o3.580%
o4.560%
o5.550%
o6.510%

Home / away and opponent splits

Ryan Pepiot is averaging 6.4 hits per game over his last 5 and 4.8 in away games, including his recent form against BAL.

6.4
Hits · Overall
4.8
Hits · Away
7.5
Hits · vs BAL
1.6
HR · Overall
0.6
HR · Away
1.5
HR · vs BAL
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Ryan Pepiot (TBR) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Ryan Pepiot is Over 1.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.4% on this pick. Their next game is Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles on Tuesday 23 September at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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