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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Noelvi Marte is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases.
On the Batter - Total Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 73%, versus the book's implied 65%, for a model edge of +7.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:26PM UTC
MLB

Noelvi Marte

CIN

+7.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Total Bases Under 1.5 -189 (1.53)
+7.6% Edge
Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds
Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, Ohio · Outdoor
Fri 10 Jul, 11:10PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
73.0%
Implied Probability
65.4%
Model Edge
+7.6%
Predicted Value

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Total Bases73.0%65.4%1.37+7.6%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games2/10

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AI Analysis

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Noelvi Marte (CIN) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-189)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Reds face off against the Cubs on July 10, keep an eye on Noelvi Marte's total bases. While Marte has shown flashes of talent, recent trends point to a potential struggle at the plate. The Cubs' pitching staff has found its groove, especially with their starters limiting opposing hitters to a measly .220 average over the last month. Marte, for his part, has faced a stiff challenge from right-handed pitchers, hitting just .215 against them this season. When you combine that with the fact that he’s been mired in a slump, going 3-for-23 in his last six games, it’s hard to envision him breaking out for more than one total base against a resilient Cubs rotation. With the line set at 1.5 and the odds favoring the under, the smart play here is to lean under—Marte's recent performances suggest he’ll have a tough time finding the gaps tonight.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
L2050%
O 0.550%

Noelvi Marte MLB hits: cleared over 0.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Total BasesSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 1.520%
O 2.520%
O 3.520%

Noelvi Marte MLB total basesseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Home RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.520%

Noelvi Marte MLB home runsseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
L2055%
O 0.560%
O 1.530%
O 2.530%
O 3.510%

Noelvi Marte MLB hits + runs + rbis: cleared over 0.5 in 60% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.530%

Noelvi Marte MLB rbisseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Runs ScoredSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.529%
O 1.514%

Noelvi Marte MLB runs scoredseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - SinglesSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.530%

Noelvi Marte MLB singlesseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
0.2avg walks · L5
O 0.520%

Noelvi Marte MLB walks: averaging 0.2 walks over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
10 Jul 26 Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -189 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Noelvi Marte (CIN) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Noelvi Marte is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +7.6% on this pick. Their next game is Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds on Friday 10 July at Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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