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The latest Bet Better model pick for Nick Lodolo is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed.
On the Pitcher - Hits Allowed market the model assigns a model win probability of 96%, versus the book's implied 94%, for a model edge of +1.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 22, 5:11PM UTC
MLB

Nick Lodolo

CIN

+1.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Hits Allowed Over 2.5 -1667 (1.06)
+1.9% Edge
Cincinnati Reds @ San Diego Padres
Petco Park, San Diego, California · Outdoor
Tue 9 Sep, 1:40AM
OUT
Lodolo (blister) will attempt throwing a bullpen Wednesday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
updated Jul 21, 10:18PM UTC
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
96.2%
Implied Probability
94.3%
Model Edge
+1.9%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Hits Allowed96.2%—94.3%1.04+1.9%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games5/10

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AI Analysis

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Nick Lodolo (CIN) Over 2.5 Hits Allowed (-1667)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Nick Lodolo for Over 2.5 in the Pitcher Hits Allowed market is backed by his recent performances. In his last five overall games, Lodolo has averaged 4.8 hits allowed, well above the line of 2.5. His away games show a similar trend with an average of 3.8 hits allowed. Furthermore, when facing the Padres, his hit allowed average is 3.5, again exceeding the line. In addition, Lodolo's current hit streaks, both overall and away, indicate a consistent pattern of allowing hits. Given these statistics, it's reasonable to expect that Lodolo will allow more than 2.5 hits in the upcoming game against the Padres, making this a solid bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10
L2075%
O 1.570%
O 2.550%
O 3.540%
O 4.520%
O 5.520%

Nick Lodolo MLB strikeouts: cleared over 1.5 in 70% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
Streak3L2075%
O 2.580%
O 3.560%

Nick Lodolo MLB hits allowed: cleared over 2.5 in 80% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10

Nick Lodolo MLB walks: cleared over 1.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Earned RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
1.8avg earned runs · L5

Nick Lodolo MLB earned runs: averaging 1.8 earned runs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
17.4avg outs · L5
L2050%

Nick Lodolo MLB outs: averaging 17.4 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Nick Lodolo (CIN) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Nick Lodolo is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.9% on this pick. Their next game is Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres on Tuesday 9 September at Petco Park, San Diego. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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