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The latest Bet Better model pick for Nick Lodolo is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts.
On the Pitcher - Strikeouts market the model assigns a model win probability of 95%, versus the book's implied 87%, for a model edge of +8.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 9:29PM UTC
MLB

Nick Lodolo

CIN

+8.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Strikeouts Over 2.5 -667 (1.15) · $100→$115
+8.2% Edge
Cincinnati Reds @ San Diego Padres
Petco Park, San Diego, California · Outdoor
Tue 9 Sep, 1:40AM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb total-runs unders: 559 of 1,032 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
Confirmed probable starter
Probable SP vs CIN @ CHW
updated Aug 11, 11:40PM UTC
OUT
Reds manager Terry Francona said that Lodolo (finger) will return from the 15-day injured list to start Tuesday's road game against the White Sox, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
updated Aug 6, 4:57PM UTC · 5d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
95.2%
Implied Probability
87.0%
Model Edge
+8.2%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Strikeouts95.2%—87.0%1.05+8.2%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games6/10

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AI Analysis

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Nick Lodolo (CIN) Over 2.5 Strikeouts (-667)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Nick Lodolo has consistently demonstrated strong performance, particularly in away games. His last 5 away games show an average of 4.8 strikeouts, comfortably exceeding the line of 2.5. Moreover, against the Padres, his strikeout average increases to 9.5, indicating a favorable matchup. His innings pitched (IP) in both away games and against the Padres average at 6, suggesting he will have ample opportunities to secure strikeouts. Additionally, his current away hit streak stands at 22, reflecting his consistent ability to strike out opponents in away games. The overall strikeout average of 3.6 also supports the bet for over 2.5. Therefore, based on Lodolo's historical performance and recent form, there is a strong statistical basis to bet over 2.5 on Nick Lodolo's strikeouts.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent form (last 5 games)

Nick Lodolo is averaging 4.8 hits, 0.8 home runs and 0.0 RBIs per game over his last 5 games.

4.8
Hits
0.8
HR
0.0
RBI
2.0
Runs
0.8
Walks
3.6
Ks

Hit-rate ladder: SO

Nick Lodolo has gone over 1.5 SO in 70% of his last 10 games, and the hit rate drops as the line rises.

o1.570%
o2.550%
o3.540%
o4.520%
o5.520%
o6.50%
o7.50%
o8.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Nick Lodolo is averaging 4.8 hits per game over his last 5 and 3.8 in away games, including his recent form against SDP.

4.8
Hits · Overall
3.8
Hits · Away
3.5
Hits · vs SDP
0.8
HR · Overall
0.4
HR · Away
1.0
HR · vs SDP
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Nick Lodolo (CIN) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Nick Lodolo is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.2% on this pick. Their next game is Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres on Tuesday 9 September at Petco Park, San Diego. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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