Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Merrill Kelly is Under 2.5 on Pitcher - Walks.
On the Pitcher - Walks market the model assigns a model win probability of 91%, versus the book's implied 66%, for a model edge of +24.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 3:42PM UTC
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Walks
Under 2.5
-196 (1.51) · $100→$151
+24.9% Edge
Los Angeles Dodgers
@
Arizona Diamondbacks
Chase Field, Phoenix, Arizona · Indoor
Sat 8 Aug, 1:40AM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb total-runs unders: 546 of 996 right
DAY-TO-DAY
Kelly was removed from Friday's game against the Dodgers due to an apparent injury, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
updated Aug 8, 3:20AM UTC · 2d old
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Implied Probability
66.2%
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Pitcher - Walks | 91.1% | — | 66.2% | 1.10 | +24.9% |
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| Window | Hit Rate |
|---|
| Last 3 games | 0/3 |
| Last 5 games | 1/5 |
| Last 10 games | 4/10 |
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Merrill Kelly (ARI) Under 2.5 Walks Allowed (-196)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Arizona Diamondbacks play Los Angeles Dodgers in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Merrill Kelly (ARI) Under 2.5 Walks Allowed (-196). That is a Walks Allowed bet. It was priced at -196 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15.10 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Betting angles
Markets & formPitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 2.590%
O 3.590%
O 4.570%
O 5.530%
O 6.520%
O 7.530%
O 8.510%
Merrill Kelly MLB strikeouts: cleared over 2.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.
Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted O 2.570%
O 3.540%
O 4.550%
O 5.550%
O 6.530%
O 7.520%
Merrill Kelly MLB hits allowed: cleared over 2.5 in 70% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.
Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted O 0.580%
O 1.550%
O 2.520%
O 3.510%
Merrill Kelly MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 80% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.
Pitcher - Earned RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted Merrill Kelly MLB earned runs: averaging 2.8 earned runs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.
Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted Merrill Kelly MLB outs: cleared over 17.5 in 50% of the last 10 games; averaging 16 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.
Merrill Kelly (ARI) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Merrill Kelly is Under 2.5 on Pitcher - Walks. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +24.9% on this pick. Their next game is Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks on Saturday 8 August at Chase Field, Phoenix. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.
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