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The latest Bet Better model pick for Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is Under 1.5 on Batter - RBIs.
On the Batter - RBIs market the model assigns a model win probability of 95%, versus the book's implied 88%, for a model edge of +6.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 29, 11:20PM UTC
MLB

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

TOR

+6.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - RBIs Under 1.5 -769 (1.13)
+6.5% Edge
St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Chase Field, Phoenix, Arizona · Indoor
Sat 18 Jul, 8:10PM
OUT
Gurriel isn't in the lineup for Saturday's game against St. Louis.
updated Jul 18, 7:33PM UTC · 11d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
95.0%
Implied Probability
88.5%
Model Edge
+6.5%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - RBIs95.0%—88.5%1.05+6.5%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games1/5
Last 10 games1/10

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AI Analysis

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Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (TOR) Under 1.5 RBIs (-769)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Diamondbacks host the Cardinals, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. finds himself in a challenging spot at the plate. Despite his talent, the matchup against St. Louis's pitching staff, led by a formidable arm, suggests he might struggle to drive in runs. Gurriel has seen his RBI production dip lately, and with the Cardinals boasting one of the league’s better bullpens, the odds of him crossing home plate with runners in scoring position are slim. Moreover, the Diamondbacks' recent offensive trends paint a picture of inconsistency, which doesn’t bode well for Gurriel's chances to rack up RBIs. Their lineup has been prone to striking out against right-handed pitchers, and with Gurriel's recent numbers reflecting that trend, he could find himself frustrated at the plate. With the line set at 1.5, taking the under feels like a savvy play, as everything points to a quiet night for Gurriel.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
O 0.560%
O 1.510%
Game log vs O 0.5avg 0.5 · hi 1 · lo 0
0110

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. MLB hits: cleared over 0.5 in 60% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Total BasesSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 1.520%
O 2.520%
O 3.510%

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. MLB total basesseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Home RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.510%

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. MLB home runsseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10
O 0.570%
O 1.540%
O 2.530%
O 3.530%
O 4.510%

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. MLB hits + runs + rbis: cleared over 0.5 in 70% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.540%

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. MLB rbisseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Runs ScoredSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.540%
O 1.520%

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. MLB runs scoredseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - SinglesSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
O 0.550%

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. MLB singles: cleared over 0.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Jul 26 St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks Batter - Walks 0.5 Under -714 ✗ MISS
12 Jul 26 Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers Batter - Hits 0.5 Under +116 ✓ HIT
10 Jul 26 Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres Batter - Hits 0.5 Under -233 ✗ MISS
10 Jul 26 Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres Batter - Singles — — — Pending
10 Jul 26 Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres Batter - Walks — — — Pending
08 Jul 26 Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres Batter - Hits — — — Pending

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About This Player

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (TOR) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is Under 1.5 on Batter - RBIs. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.5% on this pick. Their next game is St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks on Saturday 18 July at Chase Field, Phoenix. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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