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The latest Bet Better model pick for Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is Under 1.5 on Batter - RBIs.
On Batter - RBIs, our numbers say this bet wins about 95 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 95%, implied 88%, edge +6.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Aug 19, 3:01AM UTC
MLB

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

TOR

+6.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - RBIs Under 1.5 -769 (1.13) · $100→$113
+6.5% Edge
St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Chase Field, Phoenix, Arizona · Indoor
Sat 18 Jul, 8:10PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb total-runs unders: 754 of 1,520 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
OUT
Gurriel (adductor) has been sent to Triple-A Reno to begin a rehab assignment.
updated Aug 18, 9:16PM UTC
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
95 in 100
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 95.0% · the book's price implies 88.5% · gap +6.5%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - RBIs95.0%—88.5%1.05+6.5%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games4/10

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AI Analysis

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Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (TOR) Under 1.5 RBIs (-769)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Diamondbacks host the Cardinals, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. finds himself in a challenging spot at the plate. Despite his talent, the matchup against St. Louis's pitching staff, led by a formidable arm, suggests he might struggle to drive in runs. Gurriel has seen his RBI production dip lately, and with the Cardinals boasting one of the league’s better bullpens, the odds of him crossing home plate with runners in scoring position are slim. Moreover, the Diamondbacks' recent offensive trends paint a picture of inconsistency, which doesn’t bode well for Gurriel's chances to rack up RBIs. Their lineup has been prone to striking out against right-handed pitchers, and with Gurriel's recent numbers reflecting that trend, he could find himself frustrated at the plate. With the line set at 1.5, taking the under feels like a savvy play, as everything points to a quiet night for Gurriel.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent form (last 5 games)

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is averaging 1.0 hits, 0.4 home runs and 1.2 RBIs per game over his last 5 games.

1.0
Hits
0.4
HR
1.2
RBI
0.6
Runs
0.0
Walks
0.8
Ks

Hit-rate ladder: Hits Runs Rbis

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has gone over 0.5 hits runs rbis in 70% of his last 10 games, and the hit rate drops as the line rises.

o0.570%
o1.540%
o2.530%
o3.530%
o4.510%

Home / away and opponent splits

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is averaging 1.0 hits per game over his last 5 and 1.2 in away games, including his recent form against SDP.

1.0
Hits · Overall
1.2
Hits · Away
1.4
Hits · vs SDP
0.4
HR · Overall
0.4
HR · Away
0.2
HR · vs SDP
Quick answers:How many home runs does Lourdes Gurriel Jr. hit?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Jul 26 St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks Batter - Walks 0.5 Under -714 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (TOR) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is Under 1.5 on Batter - RBIs. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.5% on this pick. Their next game is St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks on Saturday 18 July at Chase Field, Phoenix. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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