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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jose Berrios is Over 0.5 on Pitcher - Walks.
On the Pitcher - Walks market the model assigns a model win probability of 92%, versus the book's implied 80%, for a model edge of +11.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 5:18PM UTC
MLB

Jose Berrios

TOR

+11.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Walks Over 0.5 -400 (1.25) · $100→$125
+11.8% Edge
Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays
Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, Florida · Indoor
Tue 16 Sep, 11:35PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb total-runs unders: 546 of 996 right
OUT
Blue Jays manager John Schneider said that Berrios underwent full Tommy John surgery Wednesday in addition to having a stress fracture repaired, Hazel Mae of Sportsnet reports.
updated May 27, 5:29PM UTC · 74d old
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Model Probability
91.8%
Implied Probability
80.0%
Model Edge
+11.8%
Predicted Value

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Walks91.8%80.0%1.09+11.8%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games1/5
Last 10 games3/10

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AI Analysis

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Jose Berrios (TOR) Over 0.5 Walks Allowed (-400)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Jose Berrios to allow over 0.5 walks is backed by his recent performance data. In his last five overall games, Berrios has averaged 2.6 walks per game, which is well over the line of 0.5. Even when considering his away game performance, he has averaged 1.4 walks, which still surpasses the line. His performance against the Tampa Bay Rays specifically is also notable, as he has averaged 2 walks in the last five games against them. Furthermore, Berrios has a current hit streak of 10 overall games and 5 away games, suggesting a trend of allowing hits that could lead to walks. Therefore, based on these statistics, there is a high probability that Berrios will allow more than 0.5 walks in the upcoming game.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
L2080%
O 2.580%
O 3.580%
O 4.560%
O 5.530%
O 6.510%
O 7.510%

Jose Berrios MLB strikeouts: cleared over 2.5 in 80% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted
90%hit L10
Streak7L2090%
O 2.590%
O 3.580%
O 4.550%
O 5.560%
O 6.520%
O 7.510%
O 8.510%

Jose Berrios MLB hits allowed: cleared over 2.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
90%hit L10
Streak5L2085%
O 0.590%
O 1.560%
O 2.540%
O 3.510%

Jose Berrios MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Earned RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
3.2avg earned runs · L5
Streak2

Jose Berrios MLB earned runs: averaging 3.2 earned runs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10
17.2avg outs · L5
L2070%

Jose Berrios MLB outs: cleared over 15.5 in 70% of the last 10 games; averaging 17.2 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Jose Berrios (TOR) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jose Berrios is Over 0.5 on Pitcher - Walks. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +11.8% on this pick. Their next game is Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays on Tuesday 16 September at Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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