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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jose Berrios is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts.
On the Pitcher - Strikeouts market the model assigns a model win probability of 95%, versus the book's implied 84%, for a model edge of +10.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:21PM UTC
MLB

Jose Berrios

TOR

+10.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Strikeouts Over 2.5 -526 (1.19)
+10.5% Edge
Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays
Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, Florida · Indoor
Tue 16 Sep, 11:35PM
OUT
Blue Jays manager John Schneider said that Berrios underwent full Tommy John surgery Wednesday in addition to having a stress fracture repaired, Hazel Mae of Sportsnet reports.
updated May 27, 5:29PM UTC · 54d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
94.6%
Implied Probability
84.0%
Model Edge
+10.5%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Strikeouts94.6%—84.0%1.06+10.5%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games4/10

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AI Analysis

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Jose Berrios (TOR) Over 2.5 Strikeouts (-526)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Jose Berrios to achieve over 2.5 strikeouts is supported by his recent performance data. His last five overall and away games show a consistent strikeout average above the line set at 2.5, with 4.8 strikeouts on average. His performance against the Tampa Bay Rays also suggests a higher likelihood of achieving more than 2.5 strikeouts, with a previous average of 5.6. Additionally, Berrios has been pitching an average of 5.6 innings per game, providing ample opportunities for strikeouts. His current hit streaks, both overall and away, further indicate his consistent performance. Therefore, the data suggests that Berrios is likely to achieve more than 2.5 strikeouts in the upcoming game against the Tampa Bay Rays.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
L2080%
O 2.580%
O 3.580%
O 4.560%
O 5.530%
O 6.510%
O 7.510%

Jose Berrios MLB strikeouts: cleared over 2.5 in 80% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted
90%hit L10
Streak7L2090%
O 2.590%
O 3.580%
O 4.550%
O 5.560%
O 6.520%
O 7.510%
O 8.510%

Jose Berrios MLB hits allowed: cleared over 2.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
90%hit L10
Streak5L2085%
O 0.590%
O 1.560%
O 2.540%
O 3.510%

Jose Berrios MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Earned RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
3.2avg earned runs · L5
Streak2

Jose Berrios MLB earned runs: averaging 3.2 earned runs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10
17.2avg outs · L5
L2070%

Jose Berrios MLB outs: cleared over 15.5 in 70% of the last 10 games; averaging 17.2 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Jose Berrios (TOR) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jose Berrios is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +10.5% on this pick. Their next game is Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays on Tuesday 16 September at Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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