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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jacob deGrom is Under 5.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts.
On the Pitcher - Strikeouts market the model assigns a model win probability of 70%, versus the book's implied 62%, for a model edge of +8.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 10:28AM UTC
MLB

Jacob deGrom

TEX

+8.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Strikeouts Under 5.5 -161 (1.62)
+8.6% Edge
Texas Rangers @ Toronto Blue Jays
Rogers Centre, Toronto, Ontario · Indoor
Fri 15 Aug, 11:07PM
Confirmed probable starter
Probable SP vs CHW @ TEX
updated Jul 21, 12:05AM UTC
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
70.3%
Implied Probability
61.7%
Model Edge
+8.6%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Strikeouts70.3%—61.7%1.42+8.6%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games1/10

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AI Analysis

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Jacob deGrom (TEX) Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-161)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The under 5.5 strikeouts bet for Jacob deGrom is backed by his recent performance data. Over the last five games, deGrom's overall average strikeouts (SO) per game is 5, which is below the line set at 5.5. In addition, his average innings pitched (IP) per game is also 5, indicating he is typically not in the game long enough to achieve a higher strikeout count. His performance away from home is similar, with an average of 5.8 SO and 4.2 IP over the last five away games. This means he's striking out slightly more batters per game when playing away, but still falls under the 5.5 line. Furthermore, his current hit streak is zero, suggesting a lower likelihood of a sudden increase in strikeouts. Therefore, the under 5.5 strikeouts bet for deGrom appears to be a statistically sound choice.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
Streak2L2090%
O 3.580%
O 4.560%
O 5.530%
O 6.520%
O 7.510%
O 8.510%

Jacob deGrom MLB strikeouts: cleared over 3.5 in 80% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
Streak7L2090%
O 1.580%
O 2.570%
O 3.530%
O 4.510%
O 5.510%
O 6.510%
O 7.510%

Jacob deGrom MLB hits allowed: cleared over 1.5 in 80% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.544%
O 1.520%
O 2.510%
O 3.510%

Jacob deGrom MLB walksseason and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Earned RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
1.8avg earned runs · L5

Jacob deGrom MLB earned runs: averaging 1.8 earned runs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
15.4avg outs · L5

Jacob deGrom MLB outs: averaging 15.4 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Jacob deGrom (TEX) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jacob deGrom is Under 5.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.6% on this pick. Their next game is Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays on Friday 15 August at Rogers Centre, Toronto. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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