Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jacob deGrom is Under 1.5 on Pitcher - Walks.
On the Pitcher - Walks market the model assigns a model win probability of 76%, versus the book's implied 49%, for a model edge of +26.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 3:39PM UTC
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Walks
Under 1.5
+103 (2.03) · $100→$203
+26.6% Edge
Baltimore Orioles
@
Texas Rangers
Globe Life Field, Arlington, Texas · Indoor
Sat 8 Aug, 11:15PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb total-runs unders: 546 of 996 right
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
View results →
Implied Probability
49.3%
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Pitcher - Walks | 75.8% | — | 49.3% | 1.32 | +26.6% |
Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?
The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.
Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan — less than one $50 bet a week · cancel anytime
| Window | Hit Rate |
|---|
| Last 3 games | 1/3 |
| Last 5 games | 1/5 |
| Last 10 games | 4/10 |
See the full 20-game form curve
Unlock the complete recent-form hit-rate curve (last 3, 5, 10, 15, 20 & current streak) for this player.
Unlock Full Form Curve
Cancel anytime
Jacob deGrom (TEX) Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (+103)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Texas Rangers play Baltimore Orioles in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Jacob deGrom (TEX) Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (+103). That is a Walks Allowed bet. It was priced at +103 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20.30 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Unlock the full breakdown
See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.
Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime
Betting angles
Markets & formPitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted Jacob deGrom MLB hits allowed: cleared over 2.5 in 78% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.
Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted Jacob deGrom MLB outs: averaging 15.4 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.
Jacob deGrom (TEX) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jacob deGrom is Under 1.5 on Pitcher - Walks. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +26.6% on this pick. Their next game is Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers on Saturday 8 August at Globe Life Field, Arlington. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.
Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.