Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Freddy Peralta is Under 5.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed.
On the Pitcher - Hits Allowed market the model assigns a model win probability of 85%, versus the book's implied 63%, for a model edge of +22.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 8:21PM UTC
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Hits Allowed
Under 5.5
-167 (1.60) · $100→$160
+22.5% Edge
Tampa Bay Rays
@
Athletics
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb total-runs unders: 546 of 996 right
Confirmed probable starter
Probable SP vs TB @ ATH
updated Aug 11, 1:40AM UTC
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
View results →
Implied Probability
62.5%
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Pitcher - Hits Allowed | 85.0% | — | 62.5% | 1.18 | +22.5% |
Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?
The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.
Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan — less than one $50 bet a week · cancel anytime
| Window | Hit Rate |
|---|
| Last 3 games | 0/0 |
| Last 5 games | 0/0 |
| Last 10 games | 0/0 |
See the full 20-game form curve
Unlock the complete recent-form hit-rate curve (last 3, 5, 10, 15, 20 & current streak) for this player.
Unlock Full Form Curve
Cancel anytime
Freddy Peralta (MIL) Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-167)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Athletics play Tampa Bay Rays in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Freddy Peralta (MIL) Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-167). That is a Hits Allowed bet. It was priced at -167 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15.99 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Unlock the full breakdown
See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.
Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime
Betting angles
2 markets livePitcher - Hits AllowedUpcoming gameU 5.5 -145 Freddy Peralta MLB hits allowed: cleared under 5.5 in 100% of the last 10 games. Current line U 5.5 at -145.
Pitcher - Earned RunsUpcoming gameU 2.5 -120 Freddy Peralta MLB earned runs: cleared under 2.5 in 80% of the last 10 games. Current line U 2.5 at -120.
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
Freddy Peralta MLB strikeouts: cleared over 2.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.
Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted 90%hit L10
17avg outs · L5
Streak8L2090%
Freddy Peralta MLB outs: cleared over 14.5 in 90% of the last 10 games; averaging 17 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.
Freddy Peralta (MIL) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Freddy Peralta is Under 5.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +22.5% on this pick. Their next game is Tampa Bay Rays vs Athletics on Tuesday 11 August. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.
Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.