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The latest Bet Better model pick for Freddy Peralta is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed.
On the Pitcher - Hits Allowed market the model assigns a model win probability of 84%, versus the book's implied 72%, for a model edge of +11.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:14AM UTC
MLB

Freddy Peralta

MIL

+11.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Hits Allowed Over 2.5 -263 (1.38)
+11.1% Edge
Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers
American Family Field, Milwaukee, Wisconsin · Indoor
Sat 4 Oct, 6:08PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
83.6%
Implied Probability
72.5%
Model Edge
+11.1%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Hits Allowed83.6%—72.5%1.20+11.1%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games3/10

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AI Analysis

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Freddy Peralta (MIL) Over 2.5 Hits Allowed (-263)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Betting on Freddy Peralta to allow over 2.5 hits is a strong choice based on his recent performance data. His average hits allowed over the last five games, both overall and at home, exceed the 2.5 line, at 4 and 4.8 respectively. His innings pitched (IP) and outs averages also suggest he is on the mound long enough for the opposition to get hits. Although his average hits allowed against the Cubs is slightly below the line at 2.4, his current overall and home hit streaks of 3 games indicate a trend of allowing more than 2.5 hits. Therefore, the data suggests that it is likely Peralta will allow over 2.5 hits in the game against the Cubs.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
L2060%
O 2.550%
O 3.520%
O 4.520%
O 5.510%

Freddy Peralta MLB strikeouts: cleared over 2.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted
100%hit L10
Streak31L20100%
O 1.5100%
O 2.570%
O 3.560%
O 4.540%
O 5.540%
O 6.520%

Freddy Peralta MLB hits allowed: cleared over 1.5 in 100% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
90%hit L10
Streak3L2090%
O 0.590%
O 1.570%
O 2.530%
O 3.520%

Freddy Peralta MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Earned RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
1.2avg earned runs · L5
L2055%

Freddy Peralta MLB earned runs: cleared over 1.5 in 50% of the last 10 games; averaging 1.2 earned runs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
90%hit L10
17avg outs · L5
Streak8L2090%

Freddy Peralta MLB outs: cleared over 14.5 in 90% of the last 10 games; averaging 17 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Freddy Peralta (MIL) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Freddy Peralta is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +11.1% on this pick. Their next game is Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers on Saturday 4 October at American Family Field, Milwaukee. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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