SYSTEM STATUS: Online WIN: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks -1 @ +291) WIN: WON: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants (Colorado Rockies 5.5 @ +320) WIN: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks 1.5 @ -101) WIN: WON: Geelong Cats @ Greater Western Sydney Giants (Greater Western Sydney Giants @ +136) WIN: WON: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants (Colorado Rockies 5.5 @ +320) WIN: WON: Geelong Cats @ Greater Western Sydney Giants (Greater Western Sydney Giants @ +139) WIN: WON: Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres (Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 @ +162) WIN: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 @ +330) WIN: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks 1.5 @ -106) WIN: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks 1 @ +154) RESULT: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks -1 @ +291) RESULT: WON: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants (Colorado Rockies 5.5 @ +320) RESULT: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks 1.5 @ -101) RESULT: WON: Geelong Cats @ Greater Western Sydney Giants (Greater Western Sydney Giants @ +136) RESULT: WON: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants (Colorado Rockies 5.5 @ +320) RESULT: WON: Geelong Cats @ Greater Western Sydney Giants (Greater Western Sydney Giants @ +139) RESULT: WON: Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres (Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 @ +162) RESULT: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 @ +330) RESULT: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks 1.5 @ -106) RESULT: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks 1 @ +154)
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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Denzer Guzman is Under 1.5 on Batter - Hits.
On the Batter - Hits market the model assigns a model win probability of 88%, versus the book's implied 69%, for a model edge of +18.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 12, 7:22AM UTC
MLB

Denzer Guzman

MLB

+18.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Hits Under 1.5 -222 (1.45)
+18.7% Edge
Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels
Angel Stadium, Anaheim
Mon 6 Jul, 1:30AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
87.6%
Implied Probability
69.0%
Model Edge
+18.7%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Hits87.6%—69.0%1.14+18.7%

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Beat the closing line — our published picks in this player's games beat the closing line 0 of 12 times (0%), +386.1% avg CLV. Verified closing-line value.

Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games0/6

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AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Denzer Guzman (NA) Under 1.5 Hits (-222)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Angels host the Red Sox, all eyes will be on Denzer Guzman, and while the kid has shown flashes of brilliance, tonight could be a different story. The Red Sox have been particularly stingy against left-handed hitters, and Guzman’s recent performance reflects that struggle—over his last few games, he’s managed just a handful of hits. On the mound, Boston’s starter has been on a tear, racking up strikeouts and limiting hard contact. The Angels also face a lineup that seems to be cooling off after a hot streak, which could compound Guzman’s challenges at the plate. With an implied probability favoring the 'Under' at 69%, it seems the odds are stacked against Guzman finding his rhythm tonight. If you’re looking for value, the under 1.5 hits for Guzman is a compelling play in this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 8 of last 10(80%)
Overall Hit Rate (10 picks) 80.0% (8/10)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
06 Jul 26 Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels Batter - Hits 1.5 Under -222 ✓ HIT
06 Jul 26 Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs 1.5 Under -189 ✗ MISS
06 Jul 26 Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels Batter - Singles 1.5 Under -385 ✓ HIT
06 Jul 26 Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels Batter - Total Bases — — — Pending
06 Jul 26 Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels Batter - Walks — — — Pending
17 Jun 26 Los Angeles Angels @ Arizona Diamondbacks Batter - Hits — — — Pending

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About This Player

Denzer Guzman is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. Across 10 settled picks, the model has hit at a rate of 80.0% (8/10). The latest model pick for Denzer Guzman is Under 1.5 on Batter - Hits. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.7% on this pick. Their next game is Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels on Monday 6 July at Angel Stadium, Anaheim. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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