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The latest Bet Better model pick for Blake Snell is Over 1.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed.
On the Pitcher - Hits Allowed market the model assigns a model win probability of 81%, versus the book's implied 70%, for a model edge of +10.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:03PM UTC
MLB

Blake Snell

LAD

+10.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Hits Allowed Over 1.5 -238 (1.42)
+10.3% Edge
Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, California · Outdoor
OUT
Snell (elbow) is expected to kick off a minor-league rehab assignment next Saturday, June 18, Sonja Chen of MLB.com reports.
updated Jul 11, 10:41PM UTC · 9d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
80.7%
Implied Probability
70.4%
Model Edge
+10.3%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Hits Allowed80.7%—70.4%1.24+10.3%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games5/10

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AI Analysis

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Blake Snell (LAD) Over 1.5 Hits Allowed (-238)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Blake Snell for Over 1.5 in the Pitcher Hits Allowed (Alternate) market is supported by his recent performance statistics. Over his last five games, Snell has allowed an average of 3.4 hits overall, and 4 hits when playing at home. This exceeds the 1.5 line set for this bet. Furthermore, Snell's innings pitched (IP) averages suggest he has ample opportunity to concede hits, with 5.2 IP overall and 4.4 IP at home. His current hit streaks of 3 overall and 1 at home also indicate a consistent tendency to allow hits. Finally, when facing the Rockies, Snell has allowed an average of 3 hits, again surpassing the bet's line. These figures suggest a high likelihood of Snell allowing more than 1.5 hits in the upcoming game, making this bet a statistically sound choice.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10
L2085%
O 2.570%
O 3.570%
O 4.570%
O 5.560%
O 6.560%
O 7.560%
O 8.540%
O 9.530%
O 10.520%

Blake Snell MLB strikeouts: cleared over 2.5 in 70% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
Streak3L2075%
O 1.580%
O 2.550%
O 3.550%
O 4.530%
O 5.510%

Blake Snell MLB hits allowed: cleared over 1.5 in 80% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
100%hit L10
Streak14L2095%
O 0.5100%
O 1.580%
O 2.540%
O 3.530%
O 4.510%
O 5.510%

Blake Snell MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 100% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Earned RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
0.6avg earned runs · L5

Blake Snell MLB earned runs: averaging 0.6 earned runs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
15.6avg outs · L5
L2050%

Blake Snell MLB outs: cleared over 16.5 in 50% of the last 10 games; averaging 15.6 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Blake Snell (LAD) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Blake Snell is Over 1.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +10.3% on this pick. Their next game is Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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