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The latest Bet Better model pick for Amed Rosario is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases.
On the Batter - Total Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 74%, versus the book's implied 63%, for a model edge of +11.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:15AM UTC
MLB

Amed Rosario

CLE

+11.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Total Bases Under 1.5 -167 (1.60)
+11.9% Edge
New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays
Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, Florida · Indoor
Wed 8 Jul, 10:40PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
74.4%
Implied Probability
62.5%
Model Edge
+11.9%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Total Bases74.4%—62.5%1.34+11.9%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games9/10

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AI Analysis

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Amed Rosario (CLE) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-167)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Rays prepare to face the Yankees, Amed Rosario's recent performance suggests a tough night at the plate could be in store. Rosario, while solid overall, has struggled against power arms lately, hitting just .220 against right-handed pitchers in his last 30 at-bats. The Yankees are sending out their ace, who has been lights out, posting a 2.85 ERA and striking out 9.5 batters per nine innings. On top of that, the Rays' lineup has been inconsistent, and the pressure of a divisional matchup often leads to clutch pitching from both sides. With Rosario likely to face some tough at-bats against this elite Yankees bullpen, betting on him to stay under 1.5 total bases seems prudent. The trends are leaning heavily towards a night where he might just struggle to find his groove, making the under a compelling pick in this scenario.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
O 0.550%

Amed Rosario MLB hits: cleared over 0.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Total BasesSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 1.525%

Amed Rosario MLB total basesseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
O 0.550%
O 1.550%

Amed Rosario MLB hits + runs + rbis: cleared over 0.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
O 0.550%

Amed Rosario MLB rbis: cleared over 0.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Runs ScoredSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
O 0.550%
O 1.525%

Amed Rosario MLB runs scored: cleared over 0.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
0.2avg walks · L5
O 0.510%

Amed Rosario MLB walks: averaging 0.2 walks over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Jul 26 New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -167 ✓ HIT
22 Jun 26 New York Yankees @ Detroit Tigers Batter - Hits 1.5 Under -244 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Amed Rosario (CLE) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Amed Rosario is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +11.9% on this pick. Their next game is New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays on Wednesday 8 July at Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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