Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Heston Kjerstad is Over 0.5 on Batter - Stolen Bases.
On Batter - Stolen Bases, our numbers say this bet wins about 27 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 27%, implied 3%, edge +17.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Sep 14, 7:21PM UTC
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Stolen Bases
Over 0.5
+3300 (34.00) · $100→$3,400
+17.6% Edge
Baltimore Orioles
@
New York Mets
Citi Field, Queens (NYC), New York · Outdoor
Mon 14 Sep, 11:10PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb batter home runs overs: 37 of 206 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
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How often this wins
20 in 100
Predicted
0.0 Batter - Stolen Bases
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 20.5% · the book's price implies 2.9% · gap +17.6%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Batter - Stolen Bases | 20.5% | 26.9% | 2.9% | 3.72 | +17.6% |
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| Window | Hit Rate |
|---|
| Last 3 games | 0/0 |
| Last 5 games | 0/0 |
| Last 10 games | 0/0 |
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Heston Kjerstad Over 0.5 Stolen Bases (+3300)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
New York Mets play Baltimore Orioles in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Heston Kjerstad Over 0.5 Stolen Bases (+3300). That is a Stolen Bases bet. It was priced at +3300 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $340 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Heston Kjerstad's lines for Mon 14 Sep
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Batter Stolen Bases 0.5
Heston Kjerstad's batter stolen bases line is 0.5.
Batter Hits + Runs + RBIs 0.5
Heston Kjerstad's batter hits + runs + rbis line is 0.5.
Batter Doubles 0.5
+573 best over price · 7 books
Heston Kjerstad's batter doubles line is 0.5, best over price +573 across 7 books.
Batter Walks 0.5
+250 best over price · 3 books
Heston Kjerstad's batter walks line is 0.5, best over price +250 across 3 books.
Betting angles
4 markets liveBatter - Hits + Runs + RBIsUpcoming gameO 0.5 -137 Heston Kjerstad MLB hits + runs + rbis. Current line O 0.5 at -137.
Batter - DoublesUpcoming gameU 0.5 -909 Heston Kjerstad MLB doubles. Current line U 0.5 at -909.
Batter - WalksUpcoming gameU 0.5 -400 Heston Kjerstad MLB walks. Current line U 0.5 at -400.
Batter - Stolen BasesUpcoming gameO 0.5 +3400 Heston Kjerstad MLB stolen bases. Current line O 0.5 at +3400.
Heston Kjerstad is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Heston Kjerstad is Over 0.5 on Batter - Stolen Bases. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +17.6% on this pick. Their next game is Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets on Monday 14 September at Citi Field, Queens (NYC). Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.
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