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Model picks & player props
New York Yankees
VS
Tampa Bay Rays

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 17, 10:17PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg
Indoor
Wed 8 Jul 2026, 10:40PM
20
Game markets graded
4
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: New York Yankees -3 (Spread)
The model graded 24 markets for New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $469 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 33.5%, fair odds 2.99, book price +369, model edge +12.2%. Tip-off Wed 8 Jul 2026, 10:40PM at Tropicana Field.
This game is done — the model’s call CASHED
New York Yankees -3 · $100 returned $469

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 736 of 1,481 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 16
Under 5.5
San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $354
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
New York Yankees
-2.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Yankees

  • Cody Bellinger LFOut
  • Aaron Judge RFOut
  • Carlos Rodon SPOut
  • Kervin Castro RPOut
  • Giancarlo Stanton DHOut
  • Clarke Schmidt SPOut

Tampa Bay Rays

  • Manuel Rodriguez RPOut
  • Cole Sulser RPOut
  • Edwin Uceta RPOut
  • Jake Fraley RFOut
  • Griffin Jax SPOut
  • Gavin Lux LFOut
  • Ben Williamson 2BOut
  • Jonathan Heasley RPOut
  • Ryan Pepiot SPOut

Probable pitcher

Shane McClanahan SP
Availability updated Aug 17, 10:05PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 15 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability15 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Junior Caminero TBR Batter - Hits
Victor Mesa Jr. Batter - Hits
Chandler Simpson Batter - Total Bases
Amed Rosario CLE Batter - Total Bases

+ 4 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineTampa Bay RaysNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF2.2L5 RA1.4Home L51-4vs New York Yankees L53-2Free board12-10

Tampa Bay Rays moneyline form: last five 2-3, 2.2 runs/gm.

Run LineTampa Bay Rays run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF2.2L5 RA1.4Home L51-4vs New York Yankees L53-2Free board12-9

Tampa Bay Rays spread form: last five 2-3, 2.2 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Tampa Bay Rays vs New York YankeesNo line posted

Tampa Bay Rays total runs form: last five 2-3, 2.2 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsTampa Bay Rays team totalNo line posted
1.5runs we expect
L5 RF2.2L5 RA1.4Home L51-4vs New York Yankees L53-2

Tampa Bay Rays team total runs form: last five 2-3, 2.2 runs/gm.

New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays — what the model found

Our model graded 24 betting markets for New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays — 20 on the game itself and 4 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
4
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 24 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 23 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays — recent results

Tampa Bay Rays have won 2 of their last 5 games; New York Yankees have won 2 of their last 5.

Tampa Bay Rays — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L2–10BALHome
L3–4BALHome
L5–6BALHome
W12–4ATHAway
W8–4ATHAway
New York Yankees — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W4–3TORAway
L1–4TORAway
L1–3TORAway
L0–1SEAHome
W10–5SEAHome

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays — recent meetings

These two have met 9 times recently: Tampa Bay Rays won 6, New York Yankees won 3.

DateTampa Bay RaysNew York YankeesWinner
Jul 9412New York Yankees
Jul 830Tampa Bay Rays
Jul 764Tampa Bay Rays
Jul 615New York Yankees
May 2402New York Yankees
May 2242Tampa Bay Rays
Apr 1254Tampa Bay Rays
Apr 1154Tampa Bay Rays
Apr 1053Tampa Bay Rays

Who’s out or in doubt

15 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Tampa Bay Rays
PlayerStatus
Manuel Rodriguez RPOUT
Cole Sulser RPOUT
Edwin Uceta RPOUT
Jake Fraley RFOUT
Griffin Jax SPOUT
Gavin Lux LFOUT
Ben Williamson 2BOUT
Jonathan Heasley RPOUT
New York Yankees
PlayerStatus
Cody Bellinger LFOUT
Aaron Judge RFOUT
Carlos Rodon SPOUT
Kervin Castro RPOUT
Giancarlo Stanton DHOUT
Clarke Schmidt SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays — model preview

Unlock potential winning baseball bets for Tampa Bay Rays playing New York Yankees. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Analysis includes MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees stats and odds.

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees : Over 7.5 Total Runs (-108)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Rays host the Yankees in what promises to be a thrilling matchup, the stage is set for fireworks at the plate. Both teams are entering this game with potent offenses, and recent trends suggest we could see a scorefest. The Rays have been averaging over five runs per game in their last stretch, showcasing a lineup that thrives on aggressive base running and timely hitting. Meanwhile, the Yankees, with their robust power hitters, can change the course of a game with just one swing. Pitching-wise, while the Rays have been solid, they’ve shown vulnerability against strong lineups, which the Yankees definitely are. With the total set at 7.5, and considering both teams’ offensive capabilities and recent performances, the over feels not just probable but likely. Expect plenty of action as these rivals battle it out—this one has all the makings of a high-scoring affair.

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
06 Jul 26 Spread New York Yankees -3 ✓ HIT
06 Jul 26 Spread New York Yankees -2 ✓ HIT
06 Jul 26 Spread New York Yankees -1.5 ✓ HIT
06 Jul 26 Spread New York Yankees -2.5 ✓ HIT
06 Jul 26 Spread New York Yankees +1 ✓ HIT
06 Jul 26 Moneyline New York Yankees ✓ HIT
06 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 5.5 ✓ HIT
06 Jul 26 Spread New York Yankees +1.5 ✓ HIT
06 Jul 26 Spread New York Yankees +2.5 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Yankees vs Rays, or as Rays vs Yankees. The most recent game between them was Wednesday 8 July 2026 at Tropicana Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 4 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Last time they played

Final scores · last 8 meetings
Tampa Bay Rays 5–3 across the last 8 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
9 Jul 2026New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays4–12New York Yankees
8 Jul 2026New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays3–0Tampa Bay Rays
7 Jul 2026New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays6–4Tampa Bay Rays
6 Jul 2026New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays1–5New York Yankees
24 May 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees2–0New York Yankees
22 May 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees2–4Tampa Bay Rays
12 Apr 2026New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays5–4Tampa Bay Rays
11 Apr 2026New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays5–4Tampa Bay Rays
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