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Model picks & player props
New York Yankees
VS
Tampa Bay Rays

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Picks & Predictions

Model updated Oct 1, 6:50AM UTC

Our model graded 44 markets for New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays and backs Over 9.5 hardest, a long shot, and $100 on it returns about $296.

MLB
Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg
Indoor
Sat 3 Oct 2026, 10:30PM
20
Game markets graded
24
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Over 9.5 Total Runs +196

The model graded 44 markets for New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $296 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sat 3 Oct 2026, 10:30PM at Tropicana Field.

Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win38.7%
The price says33.8%
Best price+196
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Runs Over 9.5 Long-shot39% chance +196
Total Runs Members only Lean57% chance Members
Spread Members only Long-shot24% chance Members
Moneyline Members only Lean52% chance Members
Pitcher - Strikeouts × 1 prop Highup to 75% Members
Batter - RBIs × 5 props Leanup to 43% Members
Batter - Total Bases × 1 prop Leanup to 46% Members
Batter - Hits × 6 props Leanup to 59% Members
Batter - Home Runs × 3 props Long-shotup to 14% Members
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 6 props Leanup to 56% Members
Batter - Runs Scored × 2 props Long-shotup to 27% Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
New York Yankees are the model's favourite to beat Tampa Bay Rays, with a 52% chance to win. Predicted score: Tampa Bay Rays 3.9 – New York Yankees 4.5. Kick-off Sat 3 Oct, 10:30PM at Tropicana Field. Best bet: Over 9.5 at +196.
How they've been scoring this season
New York YankeesTampa Bay Rays
Won-lost95-6898-64
Runs scored per game4.64.5
Runs allowed per game3.74.0
On the road / at home47-34 away55-26 at home
Last 5 gamesWLWWWLLWWL
Their games average 8.4 total runs this season.
From the 163 New York Yankees and 162 Tampa Bay Rays games on our books this season.
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Best price on this game

Odds checked in the last few minutes · 37 bookmakers compared
Winner
Yankees2.18+1181xBet
Tampa Bay Rays1.82-122Kalshi
Total runs
Over6.51.82-122Kalshi
Under6.52.17+1171xBet

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays odds by bookmaker

37 books · best price in green
BookYankees winTampa Bay Rays winTampa Bay Rays -1.5Over 6.5Under 6.5
1xBet2.18+1181.78-1282.71+1711.79-1272.17+117
888sport2.15+1151.71-1412.65+1651.75-1332.05+105
Bally Bet2.16+1161.72-1392.63+1631.80-1252.02+102
BetMGM2.15+1151.74-1352.70+170——
betPARX2.16+1161.72-1392.63+1631.80-1252.02+102
BetRivers2.16+1161.72-1392.63+1631.80-1252.02+102
Bovada2.13+1131.74-1352.80+1801.80-1252.05+105
Courtside2.12+1121.77-1302.71+171——
DraftKings2.10+1101.75-1332.67+167——
Fanatics2.15+1151.71-1412.65+165——
FanDuel2.14+1141.75-1332.80+1801.78-1282.04+104
Hard Rock Bet2.10+1101.77-1302.75+1751.80-1252.05+105
Kalshi2.17+1171.82-1222.86+1861.82-1222.04+104
MyBookie2.10+1101.75-1332.59+159——

Since the market opened: Tampa Bay Rays to win opened 1.73, best now 1.82; the over 6.5 opened 1.78, best now 1.82 (decimal, best book).

Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 131 of 227 right (mlb pitcher outs unders)
This bet type · last timeSep 30
Payton Tolle Under 17.5
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $181
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs
Over
6.5
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 24 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 58,509+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Market intelligence for this game

Line move · best book · closing line
The market drifted away from New York Yankees on this game.

Line movement

▼ moved toward New York Yankees
Exact move size 🔒 Pro

Best price right now

Onexbet
on Under
Best-price gain 🔒 Pro

Closing line

Snapshot logged
We store the closing number to grade every pick's CLV.
Derived from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction, the best-book name and our derived value only, never a raw per-book odds board.

Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Yankees

  • Clarke Schmidt SPOut
  • Ryan Weathers SPOut
  • Aaron Judge RFOut
  • Fernando Cruz RPOut
  • Kervin Castro RPOut

Probable pitcher

Max Fried SP

Tampa Bay Rays

  • Tyler Wells RPOut
  • Griffin Jax SPDay-to-day
  • Chandler Simpson LFDay-to-day
  • Shane McClanahan SPOut
  • Garrett Cleavinger RPOut
  • Gavin Lux LFOut
  • Edwin Uceta RPOut
  • Jonathan Heasley RPOut
  • Ryan Pepiot SPOut
Availability updated Oct 1, 12:00AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 14 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability14 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

The preview

Written 1 Oct

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Prediction and Picks, October 1, 2026

On October 1, 2026 our model has run New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Spencer Jones Over 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-172), which we rate LEAN confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

Spencer Jones Over 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-172)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Tampa Bay Rays play New York Yankees in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Spencer Jones Over 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-172). That is a Hits+Runs+RBIs bet. It was priced at -172 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15.81 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Spencer Jones Over 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-175)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Tampa Bay Rays play New York Yankees in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Spencer Jones Over 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-175). That is a Hits+Runs+RBIs bet. It was priced at -175 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15.71 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

George Lombard Jr. (NYY) Under 0.5 Hits (+121)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Tampa Bay Rays play New York Yankees in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is George Lombard Jr. (NYY) Under 0.5 Hits (+121). That is a Hits bet. It was priced at +121 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $22.10 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees: New York Yankees Win (+116)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Tampa Bay Rays play New York Yankees in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees: New York Yankees Win (+116). That is a h2h bet. It was priced at +116 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21.60 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. (MIA) Over 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-167)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Tampa Bay Rays play New York Yankees in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Jazz Chisholm Jr. (MIA) Over 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-167). That is a Hits+Runs+RBIs bet. It was priced at -167 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15.99 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. (MIA) Over 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-169)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Tampa Bay Rays play New York Yankees in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Jazz Chisholm Jr. (MIA) Over 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-169). That is a Hits+Runs+RBIs bet. It was priced at -169 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15.92 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the whole read. Every bet above is our own number against the price on the board at the time we wrote this, and the price can move before you get on. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Same game parlay

Written 1 Oct

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Prediction and Same Game Parlay picks, October 1, 2026

On October 1, 2026 our 3-leg same game parlay for New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays is built from the bets our model already likes on their own. We rate the whole slip LONG-SHOT confidence. Every leg below is a bet our model already rates on its own, so you can see exactly what you are backing and what the book is paying for it.

The legs, one at a time

Trent Grisham (SDP) Under 0.5 Hits (-103)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Tampa Bay Rays play New York Yankees in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Trent Grisham (SDP) Under 0.5 Hits (-103). That is a Hits bet. It was priced at -103 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.71 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Ryan McMahon (COL) Under 0.5 Hits (-130)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Tampa Bay Rays play New York Yankees in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Ryan McMahon (COL) Under 0.5 Hits (-130). That is a Hits bet. It was priced at -130 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $17.69 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Drew Rasmussen (TBR) Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-120)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Tampa Bay Rays play New York Yankees in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Drew Rasmussen (TBR) Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-120). That is a Strikeouts bet. It was priced at -120 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.33 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the whole read. Every leg above is our own number against the price on the board at the time we wrote this, and the price can move before you get on. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Drew Rasmussen TBR Pitcher - Strikeouts
Austin Wells NYY Batter - RBIs
Jazz Chisholm Jr. MIA Batter - RBIs
Trent Grisham SDP Batter - RBIs
Jazz Chisholm Jr. MIA Batter - Total Bases

+ 24 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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The players are right there — Pro shows which of their lines the model backs, and how much to put on each.

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Betting angles

1 market live
Total RunsGame total · Tampa Bay Rays vs New York YankeesOver 7 +100
8.4proj. runs
L5 RF4.6L5 RA4.6Home L54-1vs New York Yankees L52-3

Tampa Bay Rays total runs vs New York Yankees is live and our model makes it 50% (LONG-SHOT); proj. runs 8.4.

MoneylineTampa Bay RaysNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF4.6L5 RA4.6Home L54-1vs New York Yankees L52-3

Tampa Bay Rays moneyline form: last five 2-3, 4.6 runs/gm.

Run LineTampa Bay Rays run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF4.6L5 RA4.6Home L54-1vs New York Yankees L52-3Free board22-22

Tampa Bay Rays spread form: last five 2-3, 4.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsTampa Bay Rays team totalNo line posted
4.8runs we expect
L5 RF4.6L5 RA4.6Home L54-1vs New York Yankees L52-3

Tampa Bay Rays team total runs form: last five 2-3, 4.6 runs/gm.

New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays — what the model found

Our model graded 44 betting markets for New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays — 20 on the game itself and 24 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
24
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 44 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 43 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays — recent results

Tampa Bay Rays have won 2 of their last 5 games; New York Yankees have won 4 of their last 5.

Tampa Bay Rays — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L3–7PHIAway
W12–1PHIAway
W2–0PHIAway
L4–6NYYAway
L2–9NYYAway
New York Yankees — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W9–2BOSHome
W9–0BOSHome
W6–3BALHome
L2–10BALHome
W6–4TBHome

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays — recent meetings

These two have met 10 times recently: Tampa Bay Rays won 4, New York Yankees won 6.

DateTampa Bay RaysNew York YankeesWinner
Sep 2446New York Yankees
Sep 2329New York Yankees
Sep 2261Tampa Bay Rays
Sep 2202New York Yankees
Jul 9412New York Yankees
Jul 830Tampa Bay Rays
Jul 764Tampa Bay Rays
Jul 615New York Yankees
May 2402New York Yankees
May 2242Tampa Bay Rays

Who’s out or in doubt

14 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Tampa Bay Rays
PlayerStatus
Tyler Wells RPOUT
Griffin Jax SPDAY-TO-DAY
Chandler Simpson LFDAY-TO-DAY
Shane McClanahan SPOUT
Garrett Cleavinger RPOUT
Gavin Lux LFOUT
Edwin Uceta RPOUT
Jonathan Heasley RPOUT
New York Yankees
PlayerStatus
Clarke Schmidt SPOUT
Ryan Weathers SPOUT
Aaron Judge RFOUT
Fernando Cruz RPOUT
Kervin Castro RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays — where the money went

Since betting opened on New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays, the market has moved away from New York Yankees across the main game markets.

BetWhat the money did
Spread — New York Yankees -1.5▼ Money drifted off this
Spread — Tampa Bay Rays 1.5▲ Money came for this
Spread — Tampa Bay Rays -1.5▼ Money drifted off this
Total Points — Over 7▼ Money drifted off this
Total Points — Under 7▲ Money came for this
Spread — New York Yankees 1.5▲ Money came for this
Total Points — Under 6.5▲ Money came for this
Total Points — Over 6.5▼ Money drifted off this
🔒 Exact prices and how far each line moved are for members. Unlock →
Built from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction the market moved, never a raw per-book odds board.

New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays — model preview

Our New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays prediction for October 1, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On October 1, 2026 our model has run New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Spencer Jones Over 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-172), which we rate LEAN confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
Unlock the full write-up
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
06 Jul 26 Spread New York Yankees +2.5 ✓ HIT
06 Jul 26 Spread New York Yankees +1.5 ✓ HIT
06 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 5.5 ✓ HIT
06 Jul 26 Moneyline New York Yankees ✓ HIT
06 Jul 26 Spread New York Yankees -1.5 ✓ HIT
06 Jul 26 Spread New York Yankees +1 ✓ HIT
06 Jul 26 Spread New York Yankees -2.5 ✓ HIT
06 Jul 26 Spread New York Yankees -2 ✓ HIT
06 Jul 26 Spread New York Yankees -3 ✓ HIT
12 Apr 26 Moneyline Tampa Bay Rays ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Yankees vs Rays, or as Rays vs Yankees. The next scheduled game is Saturday 3 October 2026 at Tropicana Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 24 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 61 meetings on record
New York Yankees 31–28 across the last 61 meetings · 2 draws · these games average 8.8 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
24 Sep 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees6–4New York Yankees
23 Sep 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees9–2New York Yankees
22 Sep 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees1–6Tampa Bay Rays
9 Jul 2026New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays4–12New York Yankees
8 Jul 2026New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays3–0Tampa Bay Rays
7 Jul 2026New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays6–4Tampa Bay Rays
6 Jul 2026New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays1–5New York Yankees
24 May 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees2–0New York Yankees
22 May 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees2–4Tampa Bay Rays
12 Apr 2026New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays5–4Tampa Bay Rays

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 61 meetings on file.

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