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The latest Bet Better model pick for Samuel Basallo is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases.
On the Batter - Total Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 78%, versus the book's implied 61%, for a model edge of +17.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 28, 5:37PM UTC
MLB

Samuel Basallo

MLB

+17.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Total Bases Under 1.5 -159 (1.63)
+17.0% Edge
Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles
Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, Maryland · Outdoor
Wed 8 Jul, 10:35PM
OUT
The Orioles shut down Basallo (shoulder) from baseball activities for a few days to let his right shoulder "calm down," Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun reports.
updated Jul 25, 9:10PM UTC · 2d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
78.3%
Implied Probability
61.3%
Model Edge
+17.0%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Total Bases78.3%—61.3%1.28+17.0%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/0
Last 5 games0/0
Last 10 games0/0

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AI Analysis

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Samuel Basallo (NA) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-159)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As we dive into the matchup between the Baltimore Orioles and the Chicago Cubs, all eyes are on Samuel Basallo. While the young sensation has shown flashes of brilliance, recent trends suggest he may struggle to clear 1.5 total bases against the Cubs’ formidable pitching. Cubs’ starter has been exceptional lately, boasting a sub-3.00 ERA and limiting hitters to a meager .220 batting average. The Orioles lineup has had a mixed bag against right-handed pitching, averaging just 4.2 runs per game recently. Basallo himself has seen his power numbers dip, recording fewer extra-base hits as he adjusts to major league pitching. With opposing pitchers zeroing in on his weaknesses, it’s reasonable to expect him to fall short in this contest. The odds favor the under here, making the 'Under 1.5' for Basallo an enticing play as he likely struggles to find his rhythm against a solid Cubs squad.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.540%

Samuel Basallo MLB hitsseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Total BasesSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 1.510%

Samuel Basallo MLB total basesseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
L2060%
O 0.550%
O 1.530%

Samuel Basallo MLB hits + runs + rbis: cleared over 0.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.510%

Samuel Basallo MLB rbisseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Runs ScoredSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.540%

Samuel Basallo MLB runs scoredseason and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Jul 26 Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -159 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Samuel Basallo is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Samuel Basallo is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +17.0% on this pick. Their next game is Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles on Wednesday 8 July at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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