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Model picks & player props
New York Mets
VS
Baltimore Orioles

New York Mets vs Baltimore Orioles Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 30, 11:02PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore
Outdoor
Wed 9 Jul 2025, 11:05PM
2
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Baltimore Orioles Moneyline -244

The model graded 2 markets for New York Mets vs Baltimore Orioles (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $141 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Wed 9 Jul 2025, 11:05PM at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win85.7%
The price says70.9%
Best price-244

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 935 of 1,976 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 29
Under 11.5
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $130
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
Baltimore Orioles
+ 1 more market
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Baltimore OriolesMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Mets

  • Devin Williams RPOut
  • Jorge Polanco DHOut
  • Mark Vientos 1BOut
  • Justin Hagenman RPOut
  • Cionel Perez RPOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut

Probable pitcher

Zac Thornton SP

Baltimore Orioles

  • Samuel Basallo CDay-to-day
  • Tyler O'Neill RFOut
  • Ryan Helsley RPOut
  • Felix Bautista RPOut
  • Colin Selby RPOut
  • Ryan Mountcastle 1BOut
  • Keegan Akin RPOut
  • Jordan Westburg 3BOut
  • Zach Eflin SPOut

Probable pitcher

Chris Bassitt SP
Availability updated Aug 30, 8:05PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Mets vs Baltimore Orioles: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 16 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability16 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineBaltimore OriolesNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF0.6L5 RA1.0Home L53-2vs New York Mets L53-2

Baltimore Orioles moneyline form: last five 1-4, 0.6 runs/gm.

Run LineBaltimore Orioles run lineNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF0.6L5 RA1.0Home L53-2vs New York Mets L53-2

Baltimore Orioles spread form: last five 1-4, 0.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Baltimore Orioles vs New York MetsNo line posted

Baltimore Orioles total runs form: last five 1-4, 0.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsBaltimore Orioles team totalNo line posted
0.8runs we expect
L5 RF0.6L5 RA1.0Home L53-2vs New York Mets L53-2

Baltimore Orioles team total runs form: last five 1-4, 0.6 runs/gm.

New York Mets @ Baltimore Orioles — what the model found

Our model graded 2 betting markets for New York Mets at Baltimore Orioles — 2 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

2
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 2 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

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New York Mets vs Baltimore Orioles — recent results

Baltimore Orioles have won 3 of their last 5 games; New York Mets have won 2 of their last 5.

Baltimore Orioles — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W4–3ATHAway
L5–7STLAway
W8–7STLAway
W13–1STLAway
L1–3TBHome
New York Mets — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W6–2HOUHome
L1–3HOUHome
L2–8MILHome
L1–8MILHome
W3–2MILHome

New York Mets vs Baltimore Orioles — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Baltimore Orioles are scoring 4.0 runs per game (3-2) while New York Mets are at 4.4 (4-1); Baltimore Orioles pitchers are allowing 5.4 earned runs per game versus 2.6 for New York Mets.

4.0
Baltimore Orioles runs/G
4.4
New York Mets runs/G
Last 5 gamesBaltimore OriolesNew York Mets
Runs / game4.04.4
Hits / game5.68.2
Home runs / game2.21.4
Walks drawn / game2.83.0
Batter K / game8.06.0
Earned runs allowed / game5.42.6
Pitching K / game5.410.6
Walks allowed / game3.63.2
L5 record3-24-1

Who’s out or in doubt

16 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Baltimore Orioles
PlayerStatus
Samuel Basallo CDAY-TO-DAY
Tyler O'Neill RFOUT
Ryan Helsley RPOUT
Felix Bautista RPOUT
Colin Selby RPOUT
Ryan Mountcastle 1BOUT
Keegan Akin RPOUT
Jordan Westburg 3BOUT
New York Mets
PlayerStatus
Devin Williams RPOUT
Jorge Polanco DHOUT
Mark Vientos 1BOUT
Justin Hagenman RPOUT
Cionel Perez RPOUT
Reed Garrett RPOUT
Tylor Megill SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

New York Mets @ Baltimore Orioles — model preview

Latest MLB betting preview: Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets. Get predictions and top picks. Featuring picks like NA props. Keywords: same game parlay, SGP picks, MLB parlay odds, baseball parlay.

David Peterson (NYM) Over 2.5 Strikeouts (-2500)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on David Peterson for Over 2.5 in the Pitcher Strikeouts (Alternate) market is backed by his recent performance data. Peterson's last five overall games show an average of 6.8 strikeouts and he has maintained a consistent performance away from home with an average of 6 strikeouts. His innings pitched both overall and away are above the 5 mark, indicating that he is on the mound long enough to achieve the required strikeouts. His current overall and away hit streaks of 7 and 4 respectively, further strengthen the case for this bet. Even though his performance against the Orioles shows a slightly lower average of 4.5 strikeouts, it's still above the line of 2.5. Therefore, considering Peterson's recent form and his ability to maintain performance away from home, this bet is a good choice.

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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Mets vs Baltimore Orioles in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Mets vs Orioles, or as Orioles vs Mets. The most recent game between them was Wednesday 9 July 2025 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The model has generated 2 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 8 meetings on record
Baltimore Orioles 5–3 across the last 8 meetings · these games average 8.8 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
10 Jul 2025New York Mets @ Baltimore Orioles3–1Baltimore Orioles
8 Jul 2025New York Mets @ Baltimore Orioles6–7New York Mets
21 Aug 2024Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets4–3New York Mets
20 Aug 2024Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets5–9Baltimore Orioles
19 Aug 2024Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets4–3New York Mets
6 Aug 2023New York Mets @ Baltimore Orioles2–0Baltimore Orioles
5 Aug 2023New York Mets @ Baltimore Orioles7–3Baltimore Orioles
4 Aug 2023New York Mets @ Baltimore Orioles10–3Baltimore Orioles
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