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Model picks & player props
New York Mets
VS
Baltimore Orioles

New York Mets vs Baltimore Orioles Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:17AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore
Outdoor
Wed 9 Jul 2025, 11:05PM
2
Game Picks
0
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Baltimore Orioles (Moneyline)
For New York Mets vs Baltimore Orioles (MLB), model win probability 85.7%, fair odds 1.17, book price -244, model edge +14.8%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Wed 9 Jul 2025, 11:05PM at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
Baltimore Orioles
-244
+ 1 more market
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Baltimore OriolesMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Mets

  • Clay Holmes SPOut
  • Justin Hagenman RPOut
  • Mark Vientos 1BOut
  • Austin Warren RPOut
  • Dedniel Nunez RPOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut

Probable pitcher

Freddy Peralta SP

Baltimore Orioles

  • Adley Rutschman COut
  • Samuel Basallo CDay-to-day
  • Ryan Helsley RPOut
  • Chris Bassitt SPOut
  • Blaze Alexander 3BOut
  • Keegan Akin RPOut
  • Felix Bautista RPOut
  • Colin Selby RPOut
  • Ryan Mountcastle 1BOut
  • Jordan Westburg 3BOut

Probable pitcher

Shane Baz SP
Availability updated Jul 20, 11:40PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Mets vs Baltimore Orioles: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 17 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability17 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineBaltimore OriolesNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF4.4L5 RA2.0Home L53-2vs New York Mets L53-2Win rec9-5

Baltimore Orioles moneyline form: last five 4-1, 4.4 runs/gm.

Run LineBaltimore Orioles run lineNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF4.4L5 RA2.0Home L53-2vs New York Mets L53-2ATS9-5

Baltimore Orioles spread form: last five 4-1, 4.4 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Baltimore Orioles vs New York MetsNo line posted

Baltimore Orioles total runs form: last five 4-1, 4.4 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsBaltimore Orioles team totalNo line posted
3.4implied team total
L5 RF4.4L5 RA2.0Home L53-2vs New York Mets L53-2

Baltimore Orioles team total runs form: last five 4-1, 4.4 runs/gm.

New York Mets vs Baltimore Orioles — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Baltimore Orioles are scoring 4.0 runs per game (3-2) while New York Mets are at 4.4 (4-1); Baltimore Orioles pitchers are allowing 5.4 earned runs per game versus 2.6 for New York Mets.

4.0
Baltimore Orioles runs/G
4.4
New York Mets runs/G
Last 5 gamesBaltimore OriolesNew York Mets
Runs / game4.04.4
Hits / game5.68.2
Home runs / game2.21.4
Walks drawn / game2.83.0
Batter K / game8.06.0
Earned runs allowed / game5.42.6
Pitching K / game5.410.6
Walks allowed / game3.63.2
L5 record3-24-1

New York Mets @ Baltimore Orioles — model preview

<p>Latest MLB betting preview: Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets. Get predictions and top picks. Featuring picks like NA props. Keywords: same game parlay, SGP picks, MLB parlay odds, baseball parlay.</p>

David Peterson (NYM) Over 2.5 Strikeouts (-2500)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on David Peterson for Over 2.5 in the Pitcher Strikeouts (Alternate) market is backed by his recent performance data. Peterson's last five overall games show an average of 6.8 strikeouts and he has maintained a consistent performance away from home with an average of 6 strikeouts. His innings pitched both overall and away are above the 5 mark, indicating that he is on the mound long enough to achieve the required strikeouts. His current overall and away hit streaks of 7 and 4 respectively, further strengthen the case for this bet. Even though his performance against the Orioles shows a slightly lower average of 4.5 strikeouts, it's still above the line of 2.5. Therefore, considering Peterson's recent form and his ability to maintain performance away from home, this bet is a good choice.

David Peterson (NYM) Over 2.5 Hits Allowed (-2500)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on David Peterson for Over 2.5 in the Pitcher Hits Allowed market is supported by his recent performance data. Peterson's last five games show a consistent pattern of allowing more than 2.5 hits. His overall average hits allowed are 4.6, and even when playing away, this average remains high at 5. His innings pitched also suggest a higher likelihood of surpassing the 2.5 threshold, with averages of 5.7 overall and 6.1 away. Moreover, Peterson's current hit streak stands at 4 overall and 2 away, indicating a consistent trend. Even when facing the Orioles, his average hits allowed is 3.5, still over the bet line. Therefore, the statistical evidence strongly suggests that Peterson is likely to allow more than 2.5 hits in the upcoming game.

David Peterson (NYM) Over 0.5 Walks Allowed (-1250)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on David Peterson for Over 0.5 in the Pitcher Walks Allowed market is a compelling choice given his recent performance data. Peterson's last five games show an average of 2.2 walks allowed overall and 1.8 when playing away. This trend is even more evident when facing the Orioles, with Peterson allowing an average of 2 walks. His innings pitched and outs averages also suggest he tends to stay on the mound long enough to potentially allow a walk. Despite the current hit streak being at zero, the consistent track record of walks allowed in previous games makes this bet statistically sound. Therefore, the likelihood of Peterson allowing at least one walk in the game against the Orioles is high, making the Over 0.5 bet a strong choice.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
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Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Mets vs Baltimore Orioles in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Wednesday 9 July 2025 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The model has generated 2 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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