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Model picks & player props
New York Mets
VS
Baltimore Orioles

New York Mets vs Baltimore Orioles Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 7:15PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore
Outdoor
Wed 9 Jul 2025, 11:05PM
2
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Baltimore Orioles (Moneyline)
The model graded 2 markets for New York Mets vs Baltimore Orioles (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $141 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 85.7%, fair odds 1.17, book price -244, model edge +14.8%. Tip-off Wed 9 Jul 2025, 11:05PM at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 546 of 996 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 10
Under 9.5
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $170

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
Baltimore Orioles
+ 1 more market
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Baltimore OriolesMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Mets

  • Cionel Perez RPOut
  • Austin Warren RPOut
  • Juan Soto LFOut
  • Justin Hagenman RPOut
  • Mark Vientos 1BOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut

Probable pitcher

Christian Scott SP

Baltimore Orioles

  • Ryan Helsley RPOut
  • Blaze Alexander 3BOut
  • Felix Bautista RPOut
  • Samuel Basallo COut
  • Chris Bassitt SPOut
  • Colin Selby RPOut
  • Ryan Mountcastle 1BOut
  • Keegan Akin RPOut
  • Jordan Westburg 3BOut

Probable pitcher

Trevor Rogers SP
Availability updated Aug 10, 11:40PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Mets vs Baltimore Orioles: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 16 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability16 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineBaltimore OriolesNo line posted
5-0L5 record
L5 RF2.2L5 RA0.6Home L54-1vs New York Mets L52-3Free board8-8

Baltimore Orioles moneyline form: last five 5-0, 2.2 runs/gm.

Run LineBaltimore Orioles run lineNo line posted
5-0L5 record
L5 RF2.2L5 RA0.6Home L54-1vs New York Mets L52-3Free board10-9

Baltimore Orioles spread form: last five 5-0, 2.2 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Baltimore Orioles vs New York MetsNo line posted

Baltimore Orioles total runs form: last five 5-0, 2.2 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsBaltimore Orioles team totalNo line posted
1.8runs we expect
L5 RF2.2L5 RA0.6Home L54-1vs New York Mets L52-3

Baltimore Orioles team total runs form: last five 5-0, 2.2 runs/gm.

New York Mets @ Baltimore Orioles — what the model found

Our model graded 2 betting markets for New York Mets at Baltimore Orioles — 2 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

2
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 2 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 1 graded call for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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New York Mets vs Baltimore Orioles — recent results

Baltimore Orioles have won 2 of their last 5 games; New York Mets have won 4 of their last 5.

Baltimore Orioles — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W10–5TEXAway
L1–2TEXAway
L1–5TEXAway
L1–4LAAHome
W5–2LAAHome
New York Mets — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W11–1PITAway
L0–9PITAway
W6–4PITAway
W13–6CLEAway
W6–5CLEAway

New York Mets vs Baltimore Orioles — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Baltimore Orioles are scoring 4.0 runs per game (3-2) while New York Mets are at 4.4 (4-1); Baltimore Orioles pitchers are allowing 5.4 earned runs per game versus 2.6 for New York Mets.

4.0
Baltimore Orioles runs/G
4.4
New York Mets runs/G
Last 5 gamesBaltimore OriolesNew York Mets
Runs / game4.04.4
Hits / game5.68.2
Home runs / game2.21.4
Walks drawn / game2.83.0
Batter K / game8.06.0
Earned runs allowed / game5.42.6
Pitching K / game5.410.6
Walks allowed / game3.63.2
L5 record3-24-1

Who’s out or in doubt

16 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Baltimore Orioles
PlayerStatus
Ryan Helsley RPOUT
Blaze Alexander 3BOUT
Felix Bautista RPOUT
Samuel Basallo COUT
Chris Bassitt SPOUT
Colin Selby RPOUT
Ryan Mountcastle 1BOUT
Keegan Akin RPOUT
New York Mets
PlayerStatus
Cionel Perez RPOUT
Austin Warren RPOUT
Juan Soto LFOUT
Justin Hagenman RPOUT
Mark Vientos 1BOUT
Reed Garrett RPOUT
Tylor Megill SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

New York Mets @ Baltimore Orioles — model preview

Latest MLB betting preview: Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets. Get predictions and top picks. Featuring picks like NA props. Keywords: same game parlay, SGP picks, MLB parlay odds, baseball parlay.

David Peterson (NYM) Over 2.5 Strikeouts (-2500)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on David Peterson for Over 2.5 in the Pitcher Strikeouts (Alternate) market is backed by his recent performance data. Peterson's last five overall games show an average of 6.8 strikeouts and he has maintained a consistent performance away from home with an average of 6 strikeouts. His innings pitched both overall and away are above the 5 mark, indicating that he is on the mound long enough to achieve the required strikeouts. His current overall and away hit streaks of 7 and 4 respectively, further strengthen the case for this bet. Even though his performance against the Orioles shows a slightly lower average of 4.5 strikeouts, it's still above the line of 2.5. Therefore, considering Peterson's recent form and his ability to maintain performance away from home, this bet is a good choice.

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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Mets vs Baltimore Orioles in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Mets vs Orioles, or as Orioles vs Mets. The most recent game between them was Wednesday 9 July 2025 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The model has generated 2 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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