Matteo Berrettini vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction & Picks, November 5, 2026

Matteo Berrettini faces Carlos Alcaraz at Paris Masters on Thursday 5 November 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Carlos Alcaraz wins the match. It was priced at -588 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.70 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Carlos Alcaraz is the favorite to win against Matteo Berrettini because he has been playing really well recently, winning almost all of his last matches. His serve is strong, with a high percentage of first serves and points won on those serves. Plus, the hard court surface suits his style of play. Bet only what you can afford to lose.

Matteo Berrettini vs Carlos Alcaraz: Matteo Berrettini +4.5 Game Handicap (-109)

Matteo Berrettini is playing at home against Carlos Alcaraz, and he usually performs well in familiar surroundings. This match could be close, and our numbers show Berrettini has a solid chance to keep it within 4.5 games. He's got the experience and crowd support, which can make a big difference in tight matches. The most concrete risk here is that Alcaraz is a tough opponent and can dominate when he's on his game. Still, Berrettini's home advantage and his ability to fight back make this bet feel promising. With a good chance according to our numbers, backing Berrettini to stay competitive sounds like a smart pick.

That is our read - no bet on this board is a sure thing. Prices can move before you get on, so check the board at your bookmaker. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.