Today's Tennis Best Bets - Our Top 6 Picks

Here are our Tennis picks for Thursday 5 November 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Carlos Alcaraz to win the match, priced at -769 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Matteo Berrettini vs Carlos Alcaraz: Carlos Alcaraz to win the match (-769)

Matteo Berrettini faces Carlos Alcaraz at Paris Masters on Thursday 5 November 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Carlos Alcaraz wins the match. It was priced at -769 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.30 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Carlos Alcaraz is favored to win against Matteo Berrettini because he has been performing really well lately, with an 80% win rate in his last five matches. His serve stats are strong too, winning over 72% of his first serve points on hard courts. Plus, he plays well on this surface, making him a tough opponent. Bet only what you can afford to lose.

Ben Shelton vs Arthur Rinderknech: Ben Shelton to win the match (-294)

Ben Shelton faces Arthur Rinderknech at Paris Masters on Thursday 5 November 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Ben Shelton wins the match. It was priced at -294 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.40 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Ben Shelton is favored to win against Arthur Rinderknech because he's been playing well lately, with a 40% win rate in his last five matches. Shelton has a strong serve, winning over 76% of his first serve points, which is important on hard courts. Rinderknech has struggled more recently, making Shelton the better choice. Remember to bet only what you can afford to lose.

Tommy Paul vs Quentin Halys: Tommy Paul to win the match (-294)

Tommy Paul faces Quentin Halys at Paris Masters on Thursday 5 November 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Tommy Paul wins the match. It was priced at -294 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.40 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Tommy Paul is the favorite to win against Quentin Halys because he has been playing well recently, winning 60% of his last five matches. His serve is strong, with over 65% of his first serves going in, and he wins about 82% of those points. Since they are both playing on hard courts, this gives him an advantage. Bet only what you can afford to lose.

Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche: Lorenzo Musetti to win the match (-263)

Lorenzo Musetti faces Luca Van Assche at Paris Masters on Thursday 5 November 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Lorenzo Musetti wins the match. It was priced at -263 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.80 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Lorenzo Musetti is the favorite to win against Luca Van Assche because he has a strong recent record, winning 80% of his last five matches. He serves well, winning about 68% of his first serve points, and plays effectively on hard courts. With these skills and his good form, he has a good chance in this match. Bet only what you can afford to lose.

Jan-Lennard Struff vs Casper Ruud: Casper Ruud to win the match (-208)

Jan-Lennard Struff faces Casper Ruud at Paris Masters on Thursday 5 November 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Casper Ruud wins the match. It was priced at -208 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $14.80 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Casper Ruud is the favorite to win because he has been playing well recently, winning 70% of his last ten matches. His first serve and points won on that serve are strong, showing he's good at scoring points quickly. Plus, he plays well on hard surfaces, which is what they'll be using in this match. Remember, bet only what you can afford to lose.

Nuno Borges vs Ignacio Buse: Nuno Borges to win the match (-141)

Nuno Borges faces Ignacio Buse at Paris Masters on Thursday 5 November 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Nuno Borges wins the match. It was priced at -141 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $17.10 if it lands. Our model leans this way without loving it. Nuno Borges is the favorite to win against Ignacio Buse because he has been playing well recently, winning 60% of his last five matches. He has a strong serve, winning over 70% of his first serve points, which is important on hard courts. His performance on this surface shows he can compete effectively. Bet only what you can afford to lose.

That is the model's read on today's Tennis card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.