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Model picks & player props
Melbourne Demons
VS
Carlton Blues

Melbourne Demons vs Carlton Blues Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:17AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
MCG, Melbourne
Outdoor
Sun 29 Mar 2026, 4:15AM
7
Game Picks
13
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Melbourne Demons (Head to Head)
For Melbourne Demons vs Carlton Blues (AFL), model win probability 69.2%, fair odds 1.45, book price -115, model edge +15.7%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sun 29 Mar 2026, 4:15AM at MCG.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Head to Head
Melbourne Demons
+ 6 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Melbourne DemonsHead to HeadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Carlton BluesHead to HeadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Melbourne DemonsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Demons

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Blues

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Melbourne Demons vs Carlton Blues: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Sam Walsh Carlton Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Nic Newman Carlton Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Patrick Cripps Carlton Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
George Hewett Carlton Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Oliver Hollands Carlton Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Melbourne Demons @ Carlton Blues — model preview

<p>Latest AFL betting preview: Carlton Blues vs Melbourne Demons. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like George Hewett. Keywords: AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Carlton Blues vs Melbourne Demons stats and odds.</p>

George Hewett (Carlton) Over 21.5 Disposals (-400)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking ahead to the clash between the Carlton Blues and Melbourne Demons at the iconic MCG, George Hewett emerges as a prime pick to shine. Hewett, stationed in familiar home territory, has been a force to reckon with in his recent outings. Averaging a solid 26.6 disposals in his last five home games, he has consistently delivered on the field, showcasing a keen eye for the ball. With his penchant for contested possessions (14.2 avg) and efficient ball use (77.4% disposalefficiency), Hewett is poised to control the midfield battle. Facing Melbourne, against whom he has previously notched up an average of 20 disposals, Hewett is primed to surpass the 21.5 disposal line set by sportsbet. Expect him to rack up the possessions and drive the Blues forward as he continues his stellar form.

Oliver Hollands (Carlton) Over 16.5 Disposals (-244)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player for disposals over, Oliver Hollands is the man to watch for the Carlton Blues. With a recent streak of 7 hits in home games and averaging 19.6 disposals in his last 5 home matches, he's a consistent performer. Against their upcoming opponents, the Melbourne Demons, Hollands has been even more prolific, averaging 15 disposals in their last 5 encounters. His precision is on point too, boasting a solid 77.6% disposal efficiency at home. With the game being played at the MCG, where Hollands feels right at home, expect him to rack up the possessions. The stats point towards him comfortably surpassing the 16.5 disposals line, making this a solid bet for AFL punters looking to snag a win.

Brodie Kemp (Carlton) Over 0.5 Goals (-345)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, let's talk Brodie Kemp. The young gun from Carlton Blues has been hitting his stride lately, bagging an average of 1.6 goals in his last five home games. With a solid 56.7% goal accuracy, he's been a sharpshooter inside 50, averaging 1.8 marks in scoring range. Kemp's also been heavily involved in the Blues' attacking plays, boasting an average of 4.8 score involvements per game. Facing off against Melbourne, where he's averaged no less than a goal in his last five matchups, the stage is set for Kemp to make his mark at the MCG. His recent form, combined with a current hit streak of two goals, makes backing him to snag at least one major a tantalizing prospect. So, when it comes to Brodie Kemp smashing through that 0.5 goal line, the smart money says it's a solid bet. Let's watch this rising star split the middle come game day.

Oliver Hollands (Carlton) Over 15.5 Disposals (-357)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Oliver Hollands has been a force to be reckoned with in the disposals department, especially when playing at home. Over his last five home games, he's been a midfield maestro, averaging a hefty 19.6 disposals and showcasing an impressive contested possession rate of 3.4. His efficiency has been top-notch at 77.6%, making every possession count. Against Melbourne specifically, he's even more prolific, averaging 15 disposals in their recent encounters. With a current hit streak of 7 at home, Hollands is in prime form to surpass the 15.5 disposal line set by the bookies. His consistent performance and ability to impact the game make him a solid pick to snag those crucial possessions and help drive the Blues to victory on home turf at the MCG.

Adam Cerra (Carlton) Over 20.5 Disposals (-222)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Adam Cerra, the numbers paint a picture of consistency and impact. Over his last five home games, he's been a midfield maestro, averaging a hefty 24.4 disposals. Against Melbourne, he's shown he can handle the pressure, averaging 23 disposals in their recent encounters. What's more, with an efficient disposal rate of 69.0% and a penchant for gaining crucial meters, Cerra is not just a ball magnet but a playmaker who can turn possessions into scoring opportunities. Facing the Demons at the hallowed MCG, where he's comfortable performing, Cerra is poised to snag more than 20.5 disposals. The stats don't lie; Cerra is primed to shine and surpass expectations.

Adam Cerra (Carlton) Over 19.5 Disposals (-323)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing Adam Cerra to go over 19.5 disposals in the upcoming clash between Carlton and Melbourne at the hallowed MCG, the stats paint a promising picture. In his last five home games, Cerra has been a midfield maestro, averaging a stellar 24.4 disposals per game. Against Melbourne specifically, he's notched an average of 23 disposals in their recent encounters. With his consistent performance, boasting an impressive disposal efficiency of 69.0% and a knack for gaining crucial meters, Cerra is poised to take charge in the Blues' midfield battle. Factor in his current hot streak of form and the edge in his disposals prediction, and the smart money is on Cerra to snag over 19.5 possessions and lead the charge for Carlton on their home turf.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
2
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
29 Mar 26 Spread Melbourne Demons -1.5 ✓ HIT
29 Mar 26 Head to Head Melbourne Demons ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Melbourne Demons vs Carlton Blues in the AFL. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Sunday 29 March 2026 at MCG. The model has generated 7 game picks and 13 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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