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Every AFL player prop on the board today

Disposals, goals, marks and tackles from all major AU bookmakers — paired with model edge, L5/L10 hit rates, and recent averages vs today's opponent. Back the number, not the name. Filter by market or game and find value in seconds.

Edge Model vs implied odds L5 / L10 Hit-rate windows Daily Lines & odds refreshed See the verified results record
AFL 2026 Updated: 12 August 2026 Lines from all major AU bookmakers
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Crows @ Dockers
Player Team Market Line O/U Price Book Edge Model edge vs bookmaker implied probability. Green = value. Pro subscribers see full %. L5 Avg
Overall
L5 Avg
vs Opp
L5 Avg
vs Opp H/A
L5 Avg
H/A
L5 HR
Overall
L5 HR
H/A
L10 HR
Overall
L10 HR
H/A
Sean Darcy Fremantle Afl Fantasy Points Over 79.5 Over 245.00 sportsbet
Sean Darcy Fremantle Afl Fantasy Points Over 84.5 Over 380.00 sportsbet
Sean Darcy Fremantle Afl Fantasy Points Over 89.5 Over 575.00 sportsbet
Sean Darcy Fremantle Disposals 9.5 Over -256.41 sportsbet 6.8 11.5 8.0 8.8 0/5 3/10
Sean Darcy Fremantle Disposals 10.5 Over -169.49 sportsbet 6.8 11.5 8.0 8.8 0/5 2/10
Sean Darcy Fremantle Disposals 11.5 Over -116.28 sportsbet 6.8 11.5 8.0 8.8 0/5 2/10
Sean Darcy Fremantle Handballs Over 7.5 Over 220.00 sportsbet
Sean Darcy Fremantle Marks 1.5 Over 115.00 sportsbet 0.6 2.0 0.0 1.2
Sean Darcy Fremantle Marks 2.5 Over 380.00 sportsbet 0.6 2.0 0.0 1.2
Sean Darcy Fremantle Tackles 1.5 Over -1,250.00 sportsbet 1.8 3.3 5.0 3.4
Sean Darcy Fremantle Tackles 2.5 Over -312.50 sportsbet 1.8 3.3 5.0 3.4
Sean Darcy Fremantle Tackles 3.5 Over -117.65 sportsbet 1.8 3.3 5.0 3.4
Saints @ Tigers
Player Team Market Line O/U Price Book Edge Model edge vs bookmaker implied probability. Green = value. Pro subscribers see full %. L5 Avg
Overall
L5 Avg
vs Opp
L5 Avg
vs Opp H/A
L5 Avg
H/A
L5 HR
Overall
L5 HR
H/A
L10 HR
Overall
L10 HR
H/A
Jack Macrae St Kilda Afl Fantasy Points Over 99.5 Over -111.11 sportsbet
Jack Macrae St Kilda Afl Fantasy Points Over 104.5 Over 125.00 sportsbet
Jack Macrae St Kilda Afl Fantasy Points Over 109.5 Over 185.00 sportsbet
Jack Macrae St Kilda Clearances 2.5 Over -526.32 sportsbet 3.8 4.2 4.4 2.8
Jack Macrae St Kilda Clearances 3.5 Over -185.19 sportsbet 3.8 4.2 4.4 2.8
Jack Macrae St Kilda Clearances 4.5 Over 120.00 sportsbet 3.8 4.2 4.4 2.8
Jack Macrae St Kilda Disposals 20.5 Over -1,428.57 sportsbet 21.0 27.2 27.0 18.8 3/5 1/5 5/10 3/10
Jack Macrae St Kilda Disposals 21.5 Over -769.23 sportsbet 21.0 27.2 27.0 18.8 2/5 1/5 4/10 3/10
Jack Macrae St Kilda Disposals 22.5 Over -588.24 sportsbet 21.0 27.2 27.0 18.8 2/5 1/5 4/10 3/10
Jack Macrae St Kilda Goals 0.5 Over 300.00 sportsbet 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0/5 0/5 0/10 0/10
Jack Macrae St Kilda Handballs Over 17.5 Over -136.99 sportsbet
Jack Macrae St Kilda Handballs Over 19.5 Over 150.00 sportsbet
Jack Macrae St Kilda Handballs Over 21.5 Over 280.00 sportsbet
Jack Macrae St Kilda Kicks Over 9.5 Over -116.28 sportsbet
Jack Macrae St Kilda Kicks Over 11.5 Over 225.00 sportsbet
Jack Macrae St Kilda Kicks Over 13.5 Over 575.00 sportsbet
Jack Macrae St Kilda Marks 2.5 Over -588.24 sportsbet 2.6 5.4 5.8 1.8
Jack Macrae St Kilda Marks 3.5 Over -222.22 sportsbet 2.6 5.4 5.8 1.8
Jack Macrae St Kilda Marks 4.5 Over 100.00 sportsbet 2.6 5.4 5.8 1.8
Jack Macrae St Kilda Tackles 2.5 Over -1,428.57 sportsbet 3.6 5.0 4.4 3.8
Jack Macrae St Kilda Tackles 3.5 Over -434.78 sportsbet 3.6 5.0 4.4 3.8
Jack Macrae St Kilda Tackles 4.5 Over -185.19 sportsbet 3.6 5.0 4.4 3.8
Eagles @ GIANTS
Player Team Market Line O/U Price Book Edge Model edge vs bookmaker implied probability. Green = value. Pro subscribers see full %. L5 Avg
Overall
L5 Avg
vs Opp
L5 Avg
vs Opp H/A
L5 Avg
H/A
L5 HR
Overall
L5 HR
H/A
L10 HR
Overall
L10 HR
H/A
Jake Riccardi GWS GIANTS Afl Fantasy Points Over 94.5 Over 460.00 sportsbet
Jake Riccardi GWS GIANTS Afl Fantasy Points Over 99.5 Over 625.00 sportsbet
Jake Riccardi GWS GIANTS Afl Fantasy Points Over 104.5 Over 900.00 sportsbet
Jake Riccardi GWS GIANTS Disposals 9.5 Over -200.00 sportsbet 9.0 11.0 13.7 11.0 2/5 6/10
Jake Riccardi GWS GIANTS Disposals 10.5 Over -144.93 sportsbet 9.0 11.0 13.7 11.0 2/5 6/10
Jake Riccardi GWS GIANTS Disposals 11.5 Over -107.53 sportsbet 9.0 11.0 13.7 11.0 1/5 5/10
Jake Riccardi GWS GIANTS Goals 0.5 Over -263.16 sportsbet 1.8 0.6 0.7 1.8 4/5 8/10
Jake Riccardi GWS GIANTS Goals 1.5 Over 190.00 sportsbet 1.8 0.6 0.7 1.8 4/5 5/10
Jake Riccardi GWS GIANTS Goals 2.5 Over 650.00 sportsbet 1.8 0.6 0.7 1.8 1/5 2/10
Jake Riccardi GWS GIANTS Handballs Over 7.5 Over 250.00 sportsbet
Jake Riccardi GWS GIANTS Handballs Over 9.5 Over 525.00 sportsbet
Jake Riccardi GWS GIANTS Marks 2.5 Over -1,428.57 sportsbet 2.4 3.4 7.7 3.4
Jake Riccardi GWS GIANTS Marks 3.5 Over -416.67 sportsbet 2.4 3.4 7.7 3.4
Jake Riccardi GWS GIANTS Marks 4.5 Over -172.41 sportsbet 2.4 3.4 7.7 3.4
Jake Riccardi GWS GIANTS Tackles 1.5 Over -400.00 sportsbet 1.8 2.0 1.3 2.6
Jake Riccardi GWS GIANTS Tackles 2.5 Over -120.48 sportsbet 1.8 2.0 1.3 2.6
Jake Riccardi GWS GIANTS Tackles 3.5 Over 210.00 sportsbet 1.8 2.0 1.3 2.6
Blues @ Bulldogs
Player Team Market Line O/U Price Book Edge Model edge vs bookmaker implied probability. Green = value. Pro subscribers see full %. L5 Avg
Overall
L5 Avg
vs Opp
L5 Avg
vs Opp H/A
L5 Avg
H/A
L5 HR
Overall
L5 HR
H/A
L10 HR
Overall
L10 HR
H/A
Jacob Weitering Carlton Afl Fantasy Points Over 84.5 Over 350.00 sportsbet
Jacob Weitering Carlton Afl Fantasy Points Over 89.5 Over 500.00 sportsbet
Jacob Weitering Carlton Afl Fantasy Points Over 94.5 Over 750.00 sportsbet
Jacob Weitering Carlton Disposals 12.5 Over -263.16 sportsbet 13.6 14.8 19.3 12.4 3/5 3/5 6/10 6/10
Jacob Weitering Carlton Disposals 13.5 Over -166.67 sportsbet 13.6 14.8 19.3 12.4 2/5 2/5 5/10 3/10
Jacob Weitering Carlton Disposals 14.5 Over -113.64 sportsbet 13.6 14.8 19.3 12.4 1/5 1/5 4/10 2/10
Jacob Weitering Carlton Kicks Over 9.5 Over -149.25 sportsbet
Jacob Weitering Carlton Kicks Over 11.5 Over 175.00 sportsbet
Jacob Weitering Carlton Kicks Over 13.5 Over 425.00 sportsbet
Jacob Weitering Carlton Marks 5.5 Over -666.67 sportsbet 7.0 7.6 10.7 6.4
Jacob Weitering Carlton Marks 6.5 Over -303.03 sportsbet 7.0 7.6 10.7 6.4
Jacob Weitering Carlton Marks 7.5 Over -156.25 sportsbet 7.0 7.6 10.7 6.4
Jacob Weitering Carlton Tackles 1.5 Over 160.00 sportsbet 0.8 1.0 1.7 0.6
Jacob Weitering Carlton Tackles 2.5 Over 575.00 sportsbet 0.8 1.0 1.7 0.6
Oskar Baker Bulldogs Afl Fantasy Points Over 79.5 Over 350.00 sportsbet
Oskar Baker Bulldogs Afl Fantasy Points Over 84.5 Over 500.00 sportsbet
Oskar Baker Bulldogs Afl Fantasy Points Over 89.5 Over 725.00 sportsbet
Oskar Baker Bulldogs Disposals 10.5 Over -285.71 sportsbet 11.6 14.3 17.2 3/5 5/5 7/10 8/10
Oskar Baker Bulldogs Disposals 11.5 Over -200.00 sportsbet 11.6 14.3 17.2 3/5 4/5 5/10 7/10
Oskar Baker Bulldogs Disposals 12.5 Over -140.85 sportsbet 11.6 14.3 17.2 3/5 4/5 5/10 7/10
Oskar Baker Bulldogs Handballs Over 7.5 Over 270.00 sportsbet
Oskar Baker Bulldogs Kicks Over 9.5 Over 175.00 sportsbet
Oskar Baker Bulldogs Kicks Over 11.5 Over 440.00 sportsbet
Oskar Baker Bulldogs Marks 4.5 Over -588.24 sportsbet 4.6 6.0 5.2
Oskar Baker Bulldogs Marks 5.5 Over -277.78 sportsbet 4.6 6.0 5.2
Oskar Baker Bulldogs Marks 6.5 Over -136.99 sportsbet 4.6 6.0 5.2
Oskar Baker Bulldogs Tackles 1.5 Over -126.58 sportsbet 0.4 1.3 1.2
Oskar Baker Bulldogs Tackles 2.5 Over 250.00 sportsbet 0.4 1.3 1.2
Oskar Baker Bulldogs Tackles 3.5 Over 700.00 sportsbet 0.4 1.3 1.2
Swans @ Bombers
Player Team Market Line O/U Price Book Edge Model edge vs bookmaker implied probability. Green = value. Pro subscribers see full %. L5 Avg
Overall
L5 Avg
vs Opp
L5 Avg
vs Opp H/A
L5 Avg
H/A
L5 HR
Overall
L5 HR
H/A
L10 HR
Overall
L10 HR
H/A
Jade Gresham Essendon Afl Fantasy Points Over 69.5 Over 350.00 sportsbet
Jade Gresham Essendon Afl Fantasy Points Over 74.5 Over 550.00 sportsbet
Jade Gresham Essendon Disposals 9.5 Over -500.00 sportsbet 10.8 18.0 11.0 11.4 4/5 9/10
Jade Gresham Essendon Disposals 10.5 Over -294.12 sportsbet 10.8 18.0 11.0 11.4 3/5 8/10
Jade Gresham Essendon Disposals 11.5 Over -181.82 sportsbet 10.8 18.0 11.0 11.4 3/5 6/10
Jade Gresham Essendon Goals 0.5 Over 140.00 sportsbet 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.4 2/5 5/10
Jade Gresham Essendon Goals 1.5 Over 825.00 sportsbet 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.4 0/5 1/10
Jade Gresham Essendon Handballs Over 7.5 Over 270.00 sportsbet
Jade Gresham Essendon Kicks Over 9.5 Over 425.00 sportsbet
Jade Gresham Essendon Marks 1.5 Over -270.27 sportsbet 2.2 3.0 3.0 1.8
Jade Gresham Essendon Marks 2.5 Over 120.00 sportsbet 2.2 3.0 3.0 1.8
Jade Gresham Essendon Marks 3.5 Over 310.00 sportsbet 2.2 3.0 3.0 1.8
Jade Gresham Essendon Tackles 1.5 Over -769.23 sportsbet 2.8 3.4 1.0 2.6
Jade Gresham Essendon Tackles 2.5 Over -212.77 sportsbet 2.8 3.4 1.0 2.6
Jade Gresham Essendon Tackles 3.5 Over 125.00 sportsbet 2.8 3.4 1.0 2.6
Column key
  • Avg — Player's L5 average for the stat
  • HR — Hit rate (e.g. 3/5 = cleared line 3 of last 5)
  • H/A — Filtered to home or away context matching today
  • Edge — Model advantage vs bookmaker implied probability
Colour guide
  • Green — Favourable trend (avg above line / high HR)
  • Red — Unfavourable trend (avg below line / low HR)
  • 🔒 — Edge locked (Pro subscribers only)

AFL props, explained in 30 seconds

What is an AFL player prop bet?
An AFL player prop bet is a wager on an individual player's statistical performance in a match, rather than the match result. Common AFL prop markets include disposals over/under, goal scorer anytime, marks, tackles, hitouts, and fantasy points scored.
What do the hit rate columns mean?
Hit rate (HR) shows how often a player has cleared the bookmaker's line in their last 5 or 10 games. A hit rate of 4/5 means the player beat the line in 4 of their last 5 games. L5 HR (Overall) covers all recent games; L5 HR (H/A) filters by whether the player was home or away — matching today's context.
What does model edge mean in AFL props?
Model edge is the difference between Bet Better's simulated win probability and the bookmaker's implied probability derived from the odds. A positive edge (shown in green) means the model estimates a higher probability of the outcome occurring than what the bookmaker's price implies — indicating a value bet. Pro subscribers see exact edge percentages.

AFL Player Props — Frequently Asked Questions

What is this AFL Player Prop Cheat Sheet?

The Bet Better AFL Player Prop Cheat Sheet is a daily data tool that aggregates player prop lines from all major Australian bookmakers and displays them alongside historical performance data. For every line, you can see the player's last 5 and last 10 game averages, hit rates against the line in different contexts (overall, home/away, vs today's opponent), and the Bet Better model's edge rating for Pro subscribers.

The cheat sheet is updated daily before the first game of the day and refreshed as new lines become available from bookmakers throughout the morning.

How do I read the AFL disposal prop lines?

Each disposal prop row shows the bookmaker's line (e.g. 27.5), whether you're betting Over or Under, the price (decimal odds), and the historical context. If a midfielder's L5 Overall average is 31.2 against a line of 27.5, the average column appears green — indicating the player's recent form is above the line. The hit rate columns then tell you how consistently they've actually cleared that level of line across recent games.

Use the context-specific averages (vs Opponent and H/A) to refine your decision — a player might average 31 overall but only 24 against today's opponent's defensive structure, which is the more predictive figure.

What AFL player props have the most betting value?

Disposal and hitout props offer the most consistent betting value in AFL because they are the most predictable stats — high-usage midfielders and ruckmen accumulate these stats in patterns that bookmakers frequently misprice, especially for backup players and role changers. Goal scorer markets are the most volatile due to the randomness of forward entry and marking contest outcomes.

Weather is the biggest external variable: rain significantly depresses marks and reduces scoring, making Marks Under and Tackles Over counter-intuitive wet-weather plays worth tracking through this tool's weather-filtered data.

How often is the AFL prop data updated?

Lines are refreshed daily from all major Australian licensed bookmakers, with the initial load occurring each morning before the first AFL game. As bookmakers adjust their lines throughout the day in response to public betting volume and injury news, the cheat sheet updates to reflect the most current available prices. The historical averages and hit rates are recalculated after each game completes.

What does the green and red colouring mean?

Green in the average columns means the player's recent average is above the bookmaker's line — a favourable indicator for Over bets. Red means the average is below the line — a favourable indicator for Under bets. For hit rate columns, green means the player has beaten the line at a rate higher than the bookmaker's implied probability, and red means below that implied rate.

Important: for Under bets, red average columns are actually a positive signal. Always align the colour with your bet direction before acting on it.

What is model edge and how is it calculated?

Model edge is the percentage difference between Bet Better's Monte Carlo simulation probability and the bookmaker's implied probability derived from the market price. A model probability of 62% against a bookmaker implied probability of 52.6% (from $1.90 odds) would show a +9.4% edge. This is a Pro subscriber feature that helps identify which lines are most mispriced relative to Bet Better's simulated outcomes.

The edge calculation uses 20,000+ Monte Carlo simulations per player per market, incorporating recent form, opponent defensive ratings, home/away splits, and weather-adjusted scoring models.

Can I filter AFL props by market type?

Yes — use the Market filter above the data table to view only a specific prop type such as Disposals, Marks, Tackles, Goals, Hitouts, or any other available market. You can also click any game chip to filter the entire table to only show players from that specific match. Both filters can be used simultaneously.

What bookmakers are included in the AFL prop cheat sheet?

The cheat sheet pulls lines from all major Australian licensed bookmakers including Sportsbet, TAB, Ladbrokes, Pointsbet, Neds, and Unibet where AFL player prop markets are available. The best available price across all bookmakers is displayed for each line. All bookmakers featured are licensed under Australian state and territory gambling regulations.

AFL Player Prop Betting — Complete Guide

Australian Rules Football player proposition markets have become the fastest-growing segment of Australian sports betting. Unlike match outcome markets where bookmakers invest significant resources in pricing accuracy, player prop lines are often set with less precision — creating consistent opportunities for bettors who track player-specific data.

Disposals — the most liquid AFL prop market

Disposal props (total kicks + handballs) are the highest-volume AFL prop market and the most consistently priceable. Elite midfielders such as those averaging 28+ disposals per game show predictable floor levels that bookmakers frequently set too low under public pressure. The key edge: identify midfielders facing opposition teams with weak contested possession rates, playing in conditions that favour their ground-level ball-winning style.

Goal scorer markets

AFL goal scorer props — anytime, first, and 3+ goals — are the most volatile props available. A single held mark or free kick can swing these outcomes. The most consistent edge in goal scorer markets comes from Key Forwards playing at home venues with larger forward 50 dimensions, where their aerial marking advantage is amplified. Weather is also critical: dry conditions favour marking forwards, wet conditions favour smaller forwards who can crumb.

Hitouts — the most predictable AFL prop

Hitout props are set on ruckmen and are the most structurally predictable prop in AFL betting. A ruckman's hitout output is primarily determined by their opposition ruckman — a dominant ruckman against a weak opponent will regularly clear their hitout line by wide margins. Hitout props carry the lowest bookmaker margin of any AFL prop market, meaning more of the return goes back to successful bettors.

Using this cheat sheet effectively

The most effective workflow: filter by today's games using the game chips, identify markets where the player's L5 average vs today's opponent (the most context-specific column) exceeds the line, cross-reference the H/A hit rate against the bookmaker's implied probability, then validate with the model edge for Pro users. Focus on props where multiple data signals align rather than acting on a single favourable figure.

Read the full AFL betting guide for a complete breakdown of every AFL market type, including Head-to-Head, Line, and Totals strategies.

Bet Better is an analytics and data tool — not a bookmaker, and we do not accept or place bets. Betting involves risk. Gamble responsibly. 18+ only. For free, confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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