Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for A'ja Wilson is Under 3.5 on Assists.
On Assists, our numbers say this bet wins about 65 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 65%, implied 62%, edge +3.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current WNBA schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 7:31PM UTC
Latest Model Pick
Assists
Under 3.5
-161 (1.62) · $100→$162
+3.3% Edge
Toronto Tempo
@
Las Vegas Aces
Michelob Ultra Arena, Las Vegas · Indoor
Sat 29 Aug, 2:00AM
The recordWhen our formula calls wnba spread calls: 946 of 1,282 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
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How often this wins
65 in 100
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For the numbers: model probability 65.0% · the book's price implies 61.7% · gap +3.3%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Assists | 65.0% | — | 61.7% | 1.74 | +3.3% |
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| Window | Hit Rate |
|---|
| Last 3 games | 3/3 |
| Last 5 games | 4/5 |
| Last 10 games | 7/10 |
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A'ja Wilson Under 3.5 Assists (-161)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing Las Vegas Aces play Toronto Tempo in the WNBA on Saturday 29 August 2026. The bet we are looking at is A'ja Wilson Under 3.5 Assists. That is a player assists bet. It was priced at -161 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $16.20 if it lands. The game is at Michelob Ultra Arena in Las Vegas. Our model expects A'ja Wilson to finish with about 2.9 assists. The line for this one is 3.5. Our number sits below that line. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite.
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Overall Hit Rate (28 picks)
53.6%
Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.
A'ja Wilson is tracked by the Bet Better model for WNBA player prop betting. The model has hit at a rate of 53.6% on tracked A'ja Wilson picks. The latest model pick for A'ja Wilson is Under 3.5 on Assists. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.3% on this pick. Their next game is Toronto Tempo vs Las Vegas Aces on Saturday 29 August at Michelob Ultra Arena, Las Vegas. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your WNBA betting strategy.
Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.