Here are our AFL picks for Thursday 3 September 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Tom Atkins (Geelong Cats) Over 17.5 Disposals, priced at -103 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Tom Atkins (Geelong Cats) Over 17.5 Disposals (-103)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Geelong Cats play Carlton Blues in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Tom Atkins (Geelong Cats) Over 17.5 Disposals. It was priced at -103 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.70 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Tom Atkins (Geelong Cats) Over 17.5 Disposals (-103)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Geelong Cats play Carlton Blues in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Tom Atkins (Geelong Cats) Over 17.5 Disposals. It was priced at -103 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.70 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Callum Ah Chee (Adelaide Crows) Over 11.5 Disposals (-115)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Adelaide Crows play Western Bulldogs in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Callum Ah Chee (Adelaide Crows) Over 11.5 Disposals. It was priced at -115 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.70 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Bailey Dale (Western Bulldogs) Over 23.5 Disposals (-147)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Adelaide Crows play Western Bulldogs in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Bailey Dale (Western Bulldogs) Over 23.5 Disposals. It was priced at -147 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $16.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Karl Worner (Fremantle) Over 69.5 player_afl_fantasy_points_over (-108)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle Dockers play Hawthorn Hawks in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Karl Worner (Fremantle) Over 69.5 player_afl_fantasy_points_over. It was priced at -108 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.30 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Michael Frederick (Fremantle) Over 10.5 Disposals (-164)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle Dockers play Hawthorn Hawks in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Michael Frederick (Fremantle) Over 10.5 Disposals. It was priced at -164 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $16.10 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the model's read on today's AFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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