Here are our AFL picks for Thursday 3 September 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Callum Ah Chee (Adelaide Crows) Over 11.5 Disposals, priced at -114 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Callum Ah Chee (Adelaide Crows) Over 11.5 Disposals (-114)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Adelaide Crows play Western Bulldogs in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Callum Ah Chee (Adelaide Crows) Over 11.5 Disposals. It was priced at -114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Connor Macdonald (Hawthorn) Over 15.5 Disposals (-217)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle Dockers play Hawthorn Hawks in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Connor Macdonald (Hawthorn) Over 15.5 Disposals. It was priced at -217 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $14.60 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Nathan O'Driscoll (Fremantle) Over 12.5 Disposals (-164)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle Dockers play Hawthorn Hawks in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Nathan O'Driscoll (Fremantle) Over 12.5 Disposals. It was priced at -164 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $16.10 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Isaac Cumming (Adelaide Crows) Over 11.5 Disposals (-169)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Adelaide Crows play Western Bulldogs in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Isaac Cumming (Adelaide Crows) Over 11.5 Disposals. It was priced at -169 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15.90 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Karl Amon (Hawthorn) Over 16.5 Disposals (-196)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle Dockers play Hawthorn Hawks in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Karl Amon (Hawthorn) Over 16.5 Disposals. It was priced at -196 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15.10 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Tom Papley (Sydney Swans) Under 16.5 Disposals (-112)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Sydney Swans play Brisbane Lions in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Tom Papley (Sydney Swans) Under 16.5 Disposals. It was priced at -112 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.90 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the model's read on today's AFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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