Today's Top AFL Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Saturday 08/08 (Noah Anderson Highlights): Stat Projections & Picks

Looking at Mitch Owens' recent form, it's clear he's been knocking on the door of the goalposts. Despite averaging just 0.2 goals in his last five home games, his goal accuracy sits at 20%, indicating he's getting shots away. With an average of 1.6 shots at goal per game, Owens is hungry for that major score. His involvement in the attacking play is evident, with 4.6 score involvements on average. Facing Carlton, against whom he's averaged 0 goals in his last five encounters, Owens has a point to prove. His overall goal accuracy of 60% suggests he's more clinical than his recent stats reflect. With a model edge of 19.6% supporting an over 0.5 goals bet, Owens is primed to snag a goal and make an impact for the St Kilda Saints on home turf.

Daniel Rioli (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 20.5 Disposals (-115)

When it comes to backing a player to rack up the possessions, Daniel Rioli stands out for the Gold Coast Suns as they face the Greater Western Sydney Giants. Rioli has been a consistent force in recent games, averaging 18.6 disposals away from home with a strong contested possession rate of 3.8. His disposal efficiency of 86.2% showcases his ability to make every possession count, while his average of 10.2 handballs and 8.4 kicks per game highlight his versatility on the field. Moreover, Rioli has a history of performing well against the Giants, averaging 19.3 disposals in his last five encounters with them. With a model prediction of 23.5 disposals and a 19.4% edge, Rioli is primed to surpass the 20.5 disposal mark set by the bookmakers. Backing Rioli to hit the over on disposals is a smart play given his recent form and matchup history.

Jayden Short (Richmond) Over 19.5 Disposals (-167)

When it comes to reliable ball movers, Jayden Short from the Richmond Tigers is a standout performer. His recent away form has been nothing short of impressive, averaging 22.4 disposals over the last five games on the road. Short's ability to find his teammates with precision is evident in his 88.2% disposal efficiency during these games. Facing the Adelaide Crows, whom he has historically tallied an average of 23 disposals against, Short is poised to control the play from the backline. With a model predicting him to hit 24 disposals, comfortably above the 19.5 line, and Short's current away hit streak of 2, it's a smart bet to back him to surpass the mark once again. Expect Short to be a pivotal figure in Richmond's ball movement at the Adelaide Oval.

Hugo Garcia (St Kilda) Over 21.5 Disposals (-161)

When it comes to Hugo Garcia for the St Kilda Saints at Marvel Stadium, you've got a prime candidate to back for Over 21.5 disposals against the Carlton Blues. Over his last five home games, Garcia has been a disposal machine, averaging a hefty 25.8 touches per game. His ability to find the footy is top-notch, with a knack for both contested possessions and uncontested possessions. With a solid disposal efficiency of 77.0% at home and a reliable 280.6 metres gained on average, Garcia is not just a ball magnet but also an impactful player in moving his team forward. Against Carlton specifically, he's shown a strong average of 12.3 disposals over the last five encounters. With Garcia's consistency and form, hitting that Over 21.5 mark seems like a safe bet for this matchup.

Joel Jeffrey (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 15.5 Disposals (-159)

When it comes to Joel Jeffrey hitting the Over 15.5 disposals mark against the Greater Western Sydney Giants, the numbers are lining up like a set shot from 50 out. In his last five away games, Jeffrey has been a ball magnet, averaging 16 disposals, with a solid 80.8% disposal efficiency to boot. His ability to cover the ground is evident, averaging 341.8 meters gained per game. Facing the Giants, who he's historically tallied an average of 12 disposals against, sets the stage for Jeffrey to capitalize. With a recent hit rate of 12 out of 18 away games smashing this line, the smart money is on Jeffrey to rack up the possessions at Corroboree Group Oval Manuka. It's not a punt; it's a calculated play.

That is the model's read on today's AFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.