Here are our AFL picks for Friday 31 July 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Bailey Williams (Western Bulldogs) Under 22.5 Disposals, priced at -115 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Bailey Williams (Western Bulldogs) Under 22.5 Disposals (-115)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Bailey Williams might be a talented player, but the numbers suggest a quieter game ahead when the Western Bulldogs face Fremantle. In his last five away games, Williams has averaged 21 disposals, flirting with the line set at 22.5. However, recent matchups against Fremantle show him averaging just 16.6 disposals, below his usual output. His disposalefficiency, while solid at 77.2%, might not be enough to push him over this line, especially with the pressure Fremantle applies. With his recent form showing a turnover average of 5.2 per game, the Dockers could capitalize on any errors he makes. Betting under 22.5 disposals for Bailey Williams seems justified, given the historical trends and matchup dynamics at play.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to backing a player to hit the Over on disposals, Daniel Rioli stands out for the upcoming clash between the Gold Coast Suns and Melbourne Demons at People First Stadium. Rioli has been a consistent force at home, averaging 22.2 disposals over his last five games on familiar turf. His ability to find space and impact the game is evident in his 83.2% disposal efficiency and 483 meters gained per game during this stretch. Facing Melbourne, whom he has historically averaged 19.8 disposals against, Rioli is poised to surpass the line of 20.5. With his recent form and matchup history in mind, Rioli's knack for getting his hands on the footy makes him a strong bet to rack up the possessions on Sunday.
Darcy Wilson (St Kilda) Over 0.5 Goals (-108)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to backing Darcy Wilson to snag over 0.5 goals in the upcoming clash between St Kilda and Sydney, the numbers paint a promising picture. Over his last five home games, Wilson has been a consistent threat in front of the big sticks, averaging 0.6 goals per game. His goal accuracy at 40.0% showcases his ability to convert opportunities, while his involvement in the attacking play is evident with an average of 5.6 score involvements. Facing the Sydney Swans, against whom he has averaged 1 goal in their last five encounters, Wilson is poised to capitalize on his recent form. With a solid hit rate at home and overall, backing Wilson to split the middle looks like a smart play for this matchup at Marvel Stadium.
Rhylee West (Western Bulldogs) Over 0.5 Goals (-152)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to banking on a player to snag a goal, Rhylee West is a compelling choice. In his last five away games, he's been on fire, averaging 1.2 goals per game with an impressive 50.0% goal accuracy. His ability to hit the scoreboard consistently is evident with 4 score involvements and 2.4 shots at goal per game. Facing Fremantle, where he's averaged 0.7 goals in their last five encounters, West is poised to exploit their defense. With a current hit streak of 1 away and 2 overall, he's in form and ready to make an impact. Backing West to score over 0.5 goals in this clash at Optus Stadium is a smart bet with his recent track record and scoring prowess.
Caleb Daniel (North Melbourne) Over 23.5 Disposals (-149)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to Caleb Daniel hitting the Over 23.5 disposals mark against Hawthorn, the numbers paint a vivid picture. In his last five away games, Caleb has been a midfield maestro, averaging 22.4 disposals, with a stellar 79.8% disposal efficiency. Facing off against Hawthorn, a team he already averages 22.8 disposals against, Caleb is poised to shine. His ability to find space and rack up kicks and handballs, coupled with his impressive metres gained and low turnover rate, sets him up for success. With an overall disposals average of 24.8 and a recent hit rate of 6 out of 9, Caleb Daniel is primed to not just meet but exceed that 23.5 disposals line. Bet on him to weave his magic through the middle at UTAS Stadium.
Archie Roberts (Essendon) Over 24.5 Disposals (-204)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to backing a player to go over 24.5 disposals, Archie Roberts of the Essendon Bombers stands out as a prime candidate. In his last five home games, Archie has been a midfield maestro, averaging 29.6 disposals per match. His ability to find the footy is evident in his average of 20.8 kicks and 8.8 handballs, showcasing his two-way impact on the game. With a disposal efficiency of 77.9% at home, Archie is not just a volume player but a precise one too. Against the Adelaide Crows, he's maintained a solid average of 19 disposals, but his recent form signals he's poised to surpass that mark. Look for Archie to dominate the Marvel Stadium turf and easily surpass the 24.5 disposals line in this upcoming clash.
That is the model's read on today's AFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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