Daniil Medvedev vs Francisco Cerundolo: Francisco Cerundolo to win the match (+222)
Odds available at Pinnacle at time of publishing
Daniil Medvedev faces Francisco Cerundolo at China Open on Sunday 4 October 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Francisco Cerundolo wins the match. It was priced at +222 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $32.20 if it lands. Our model has this one as a long shot, so treat it as a small punt. Francisco Cerundolo presents excellent value at odds of 3.22 against Daniil Medvedev, supported by several key performance indicators. Cerundolo boasts an impressive 68.7% first-serve percentage and has won 82.8% of first-serve points in his last five matches, indicating strong serve reliability. In contrast, Medvedev's opponents have managed only a 58.5% win rate on serve against him, suggesting vulnerability. Cerundolo's high breakpoint save percentage (87.5%) further underscores his resilience under pressure, while Medvedev's less impressive 50% BP save rate highlights opportunities for Cerundolo to capitalize on critical moments. Additionally, his recent form—winning 60% of his last ten matches—matches Medvedev's, indicating that Cerundolo is competitive at this level.