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ATP tennis predictions for Monday, November 16: the model leans Daniil Medvedev

2 ATP tennis matches on Monday. The model's strongest pick is Daniil Medvedev -4, a LEAN-confidence call.

Written with our model's data and an AI writing assistant, checked against our rules. Meet our writers

Carlos Alcaraz vs Frances Tiafoe

Mon Nov 16, 1:00 PM UTC
Our pick: Frances Tiafoe +4.5 (they can lose by up to 4 games and the bet still wins)-109

LEAN — about a 5 in 10 chance by our numbers

Frances Tiafoe is getting a +4.5 game handicap at odds of -109, which offers a nice cushion against Carlos Alcaraz.

Daniil Medvedev vs Flavio Cobolli

Mon Nov 16, 7:30 PM UTC
Top pick: Daniil Medvedev -4 (they must win by 5 or more games; win by exactly 4 games and your stake comes back)+120

LEAN — about a 6 in 10 chance by our numbers

The odds of +120 for Daniil Medvedev to win by at least five games against Flavio Cobolli look appealing.

How we pick these games

Our model looks at each team's recent form, injuries, rest and the price on offer, and works out how likely each result is. When its number says a bet is more likely to land than the price suggests, the bet makes our list. For each game we show the one main-line bet it likes most. HIGH means it lands about 6 or more times in 10 by our numbers. LEAN means about 4 to 6 times in 10. LONG-SHOT means less than 4 in 10: a bigger payout and a smaller chance. No pick is a sure thing.

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