On October 05, 2026 our model has run Daniil Medvedev at Novak Djokovic and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Novak Djokovic to win the match (+130), which we rate long shot confidence. Every bet below is our own number against the price on the board, in plain English.
Every bet we like in this game
Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev: Novak Djokovic to win the match (+130)
Odds available at hardrockbet at time of publishing
Novak Djokovic faces Daniil Medvedev at China Open on Monday 5 October 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Novak Djokovic wins the match. It was priced at +130 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $23 if it lands. Our model has this one as a long shot, so treat it as a small punt. Novak Djokovic presents strong value at 2.3 against Daniil Medvedev. Over their last five matches, Djokovic has a first-serve percentage of 54.8%, winning 73.5% of first-serve points and 46.9% of second-serve points. His overall serve points won rate of 61.4% and an impressive break point save rate of 75.7% indicate resilience under pressure.
In contrast, Medvedev's recent performance shows a first-serve percentage of 61.8% but with lower first and second points won rates (78.4% and 51.3%, respectively), and a break point save rate of only 63.3%. This suggests he is more vulnerable when facing break points.
Additionally, Djokovic's recent form (40% win rate in the last 5 matches vs. a 70% win rate over 10) suggests he’s trending upward, while Medvedev's form may not be as solid. With Djokovic's superior serve performance and mental strength in critical moments, he is the
Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev: Novak Djokovic +0.5 Game Handicap (+111)
Odds available at Pinnacle at time of publishing
Novak Djokovic is known for his incredible skill, especially at home, and this matchup against Daniil Medvedev is expected to be very close. Both players are top-tier and can deliver amazing performances, making the stakes high for this game.
Betting on Djokovic to win with a small handicap of +0.5 seems smart because he has a solid record in tight matches like this. The biggest risk is how closely matched they are, which means either player could come out on top. However, Djokovic's experience and home crowd might give him the slight boost he needs.
That is the whole read on this one. Prices can move before you get on, so check the board at your bookmaker. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.