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The latest Bet Better model pick for Morgan Rielly is Over 3.5 on Shots on Goal.
On Shots on Goal, our numbers say this bet wins about 11 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 11%, the price says 10%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NHL schedule.
Model updated Oct 7, 1:23AM UTC
NHL

Morgan Rielly

Toronto Maple Leafs

Value call

Morgan Rielly (Toronto Maple Leafs) has one live pick today: Shots on Goal Over 3.5 that pays $1,050 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Shots on Goal Over 3.5 +950 (10.50) · $100→$1,050
Value call
Nashville Predators @ Toronto Maple Leafs
Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, FUT · Indoor
Tue 6 Oct, 11:00PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
11 in 100
Predicted
1.5 Shots on Goal
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 11.3% · the book's price implies 9.5% · gap +1.8%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Shots on Goal11.3%—9.5%8.81+1.8%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games7/10

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AI Analysis

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Toronto Maple Leafs vs Nashville Predators: Morgan Rielly Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+950)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Morgan Rielly has a great chance to take a lot of shots in this game. The Toronto Maple Leafs and Nashville Predators are both struggling lately, winning only 3 of their last 10 games. With both teams fighting for a win, it could lead to more offensive plays, and Rielly has been known to jump into the action when his team needs it. Betting on Rielly to have over 3.5 shots on goal looks promising. He plays at home in Scotiabank Arena, where the team usually puts up more offense. The biggest risk here is that both teams are evenly matched right now, so it's tough to predict how the game will flow. Still, Rielly has a good opportunity to make his mark.

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Pick History & Track Record

Morgan Rielly's lines for Tue 6 Oct

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Shots on Goal 3.5

Morgan Rielly's shots on goal line is 3.5.

Recent game log

Morgan Rielly has 1 goals and 3 assists (4 points) across his last 10 NHL games.

DateOppGAPSOGHitsTOI
3 Oct 26vs OTT0111018:23
30 Sep 26vs NYI0111019:49
29 Sep 26vs MTL0111221:30
15 Apr 26@ OTT0001120:03
13 Apr 26vs DAL0001017:57
11 Apr 26vs FLA0001220:13
9 Apr 26@ NYI1012120:45
8 Apr 26vs WSH0003021:10
4 Apr 26@ LAK0000022:18
2 Apr 26@ SJS0000022:56
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Morgan Rielly (Toronto Maple Leafs) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NHL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Morgan Rielly is Over 3.5 on Shots on Goal. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.8% on this pick. Their next game is Nashville Predators vs Toronto Maple Leafs on Tuesday 6 October at Scotiabank Arena, Toronto. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NHL betting strategy.

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