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NHL

Morgan Rielly

Toronto Maple Leafs

Value call

Morgan Rielly (Toronto Maple Leafs) has one live pick today: over 0.5 shots on goal that pays $126 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
78 in 100
Predicted
1.6 shots on goal
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 77.7% · before adjusting for past results 83.4% · the book's price implies 79.4% · gap -1.6%.

Latest Model PickFree
Toronto Maple Leafs @ Calgary Flames
Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary, FUT · Indoor
Mon 26 Oct, 8:30 PM ET
Morgan Rielly
over 0.5 shots on goal
Shots on Goal Over 0.5 -385 (1.26) · $100→$126
Value call
HIGHWins about 78 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$12.60 Odds-385
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Morgan Rielly is Over 0.5 on Shots on Goal.
On Shots on Goal, our numbers say this bet wins about 78 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 78%, the price says 79%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NHL schedule.
Model updated Oct 28, 11:29AM UTC
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Shots on Goal83.4%77.7%79.4%1.29+4.0%

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AI Analysis

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Calgary Flames vs Toronto Maple Leafs: Morgan Rielly Over 0.5 Shots on Goal (-385)

Odds correct at time of publishing

For this bet, Morgan Rielly needs to take at least one shot on goal tonight against the Calgary Flames. Given that the Flames have been blocking a lot of shots this season, Rielly is still a strong pick because he plays a key role in Toronto's offense and regularly gets chances to shoot. Toronto has been winning more games lately, which usually means more opportunities for their defensemen to join the attack. The Flames are known for their physical play, landing plenty of hits, but that doesn't usually stop skilled players like Rielly from finding openings. The biggest risk here is that both teams have been tight on defense at times, but Rielly has a good chance to get his shot off given his offensive role.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent game log

Morgan Rielly has 0 goals and 7 assists (7 points) across his last 10 NHL games.

DateOppGAPSOGHitsTOI
26 Oct 26@ CGY0111019:27
24 Oct 26@ EDM0110218:51
22 Oct 26vs NYR0113020:58
20 Oct 26@ CBJ0330022:46
19 Oct 26vs SJS0003121:05
17 Oct 26vs NYI0001017:50
15 Oct 26vs BUF0003018:35
13 Oct 26@ UTA0001016:09
10 Oct 26@ COL0110218:48
8 Oct 26@ VGK0001020:57
Quick answers:How many points does Morgan Rielly average?How many shots on goal does Morgan Rielly average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
26 Oct 26 Toronto Maple Leafs @ Calgary Flames Shots on Goal 0.5 Over -385 ✓ HIT
06 Oct 26 Nashville Predators @ Toronto Maple Leafs Shots on Goal — — — Pending

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About This Player

Morgan Rielly (Toronto Maple Leafs) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NHL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Morgan Rielly is Over 0.5 on Shots on Goal. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.0% on this pick. Their next game is Toronto Maple Leafs vs Calgary Flames on Monday 26 October at Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NHL betting strategy.

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