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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Matthew Knies is Over 1.5 on Shots on Goal.
On Shots on Goal, our numbers say this bet wins about 68 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 68%, implied 65%, edge +3.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NHL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 6:40PM UTC
NHL

Matthew Knies

Toronto Maple Leafs

+3.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Shots on Goal Over 1.5 -189 (1.53) · $100→$153
+3.0% Edge
Calgary Flames @ Toronto Maple Leafs
Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, FUT · Indoor
Tue 28 Oct, 10:00PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
68 in 100
Predicted
2.7 Shots on Goal
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 68.4% · the book's price implies 65.4% · gap +3.0%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Shots on Goal68.4%65.4%1.46+3.0%

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AI Analysis

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Matthew Knies (Toronto Maple Leafs) Over 1.5 Shots On Goal (-189)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Matthew Knies' performance data indicates a strong propensity for achieving over 1.5 shots on goal. Model predictions suggest an average of 2.66 shots for Knies, well above the 1.5 line. This is backed by Knies' last 5 games averages, both overall and at home, sitting at 2.2, which is consistent and higher than the betting line. Moreover, his hit rate is strong, with 7 out of the last 9 home games and 9 out of the last 11 overall exceeding the 1.5 shots mark. Despite a current hit streak of zero, the strong historical performance is promising. The standard deviation of the model prediction is 1.38, indicating some variability but still mostly above the line. Thus, the bet on Matthew Knies for Over 1.5 in the 'Player Shots On Goal' market is statistically justified.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent game log

Matthew Knies has 3 goals and 4 assists (7 points) across his last 10 NHL games.

DateOppGAPSOGHitsTOI
15 Apr 26@ OTT0001116:39
13 Apr 26vs DAL0221319:31
11 Apr 26vs FLA0001116:30
9 Apr 26@ NYI0000018:56
8 Apr 26vs WSH0002117:56
4 Apr 26@ LAK2242319:44
2 Apr 26@ SJS0001217:36
30 Mar 26@ ANA1011419:11
28 Mar 26@ STL0000015:26
25 Mar 26vs NYR0001115:25
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Matthew Knies (Toronto Maple Leafs) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NHL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Matthew Knies is Over 1.5 on Shots on Goal. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.0% on this pick. Their next game is Calgary Flames vs Toronto Maple Leafs on Tuesday 28 October at Scotiabank Arena, Toronto. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NHL betting strategy.

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