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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Matthew Knies is Over 1.5 on Shots on Goal.
On the Shots on Goal market the model assigns a model win probability of 68%, versus the book's implied 65%, for a model edge of +3.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NHL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:16AM UTC
NHL

Matthew Knies

Toronto Maple Leafs

+3.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Shots on Goal Over 1.5 -189 (1.53)
+3.0% Edge
Calgary Flames @ Toronto Maple Leafs
Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, FUT · Indoor
Tue 28 Oct, 10:00PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
68.4%
Implied Probability
65.4%
Model Edge
+3.0%
Predicted Value
2.7 Shots on Goal

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Shots on Goal68.4%65.4%1.46+3.0%

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AI Analysis

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Matthew Knies (Toronto Maple Leafs) Over 1.5 Shots On Goal (-189)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Matthew Knies' performance data indicates a strong propensity for achieving over 1.5 shots on goal. Model predictions suggest an average of 2.66 shots for Knies, well above the 1.5 line. This is backed by Knies' last 5 games averages, both overall and at home, sitting at 2.2, which is consistent and higher than the betting line. Moreover, his hit rate is strong, with 7 out of the last 9 home games and 9 out of the last 11 overall exceeding the 1.5 shots mark. Despite a current hit streak of zero, the strong historical performance is promising. The standard deviation of the model prediction is 1.38, indicating some variability but still mostly above the line. Thus, the bet on Matthew Knies for Over 1.5 in the 'Player Shots On Goal' market is statistically justified.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Shots on GoalModel read - latest listed matchupNo line posted
2.7projected shots (model)
Line1.5Model proj2.7Last oppCGYListed2

Matthew Knies (Toronto Maple Leafs) NHL Shots on Goal: BetBetter's model projects 2.7 shots against a market line of 1.5 vs CGY. 2 matchups tracked. No upcoming NHL line is posted for this market right now.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Matthew Knies (Toronto Maple Leafs) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NHL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Matthew Knies is Over 1.5 on Shots on Goal. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.0% on this pick. Their next game is Calgary Flames vs Toronto Maple Leafs on Tuesday 28 October at Scotiabank Arena, Toronto. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NHL betting strategy.

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