Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Tyson Bagent is Under 1.5 on Passing Touchdowns.
On Passing Touchdowns, our numbers say this bet wins about 57 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 57%, the price says 60%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 4, 11:38AM UTC
NFL
Tyson Bagent
CHI
Tyson Bagent has one live pick today: Passing Touchdowns Under 1.5 that pays $167 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Passing Touchdowns
Under 1.5
-149 (1.67) · $100→$167
Value call
New York Jets
@
Chicago Bears
Chicago · Indoor
Sun 4 Oct, 5:00PM
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Bagent is expected to start Sunday versus the Jets after getting most of the first-team reps in practice, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports. However, coach Ben Johnson has not yet confirmed the plan.
updated Oct 2, 11:37PM UTC · 1d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
57 in 100
Predicted
1.1 Passing Touchdowns
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 57.2% · before adjusting for past results 68.3% · the book's price implies 59.9% · gap -2.7%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Passing Touchdowns | 68.3% | 57.2% | 59.9% | 1.77 | +8.4% |
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Tyson Bagent (CHI) Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-149)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Chicago Bears play New York Jets in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Tyson Bagent (CHI) Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns. It was priced at -149 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $16.70 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Tyson Bagent's lines for Sun 4 Oct
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Passing Touchdowns 1.5
Tyson Bagent's passing touchdowns line is 1.5.
Passing Yards (Alt) 99.5
Tyson Bagent's passing yards (alt) line is 99.5.
Betting angles
1 market livePassing YardsNext game · New York JetsO 99.5 -1667
99.5posted line · passing yds
Tyson Bagent has a live NFL passing yards market for New York Jets: over 99.5 passing yds priced at -1667.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Tyson Bagent (CHI) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tyson Bagent is Under 1.5 on Passing Touchdowns. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.4% on this pick. Their next game is New York Jets vs Chicago Bears on Sunday 4 October at Chicago. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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