Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Ja'Marr Chase is Over 7.5 on Receptions (Alt).
On Receptions (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 52 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 52%, the price says 47%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 21, 4:08AM UTC
NFL
Ja'Marr Chase
CIN
Ja'Marr Chase has one live pick today: Receptions (Alt) Over 7.5 that pays $214 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Receptions (Alt)
Over 7.5
+114 (2.14) · $100→$214
Value call
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
@
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati · Indoor
Sun 13 Sep, 5:00PM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: 339 of 532 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Chase brought in seven of nine targets for 75 yards and two touchdowns in the Bengals' 20-6 win over the Texans on Sunday.
updated Sep 20, 8:57PM UTC
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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How often this wins
52 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 52.5% · before adjusting for past results 52.5% · the book's price implies 46.7% · gap +5.7%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Receptions (Alt) | 52.5% | 52.5% | 46.7% | 2.14 | +5.7% |
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Ja'Marr Chase (CIN) Over 7.5 Player receptions alternate (+114)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Cincinnati Bengals play Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFL on Sunday 13 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Ja'Marr Chase (CIN) Over 7.5 Player receptions alternate. It was priced at +114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21.40 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Betting angles
Markets & formAnytime TD2 lines trackedNo line posted
50%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked2
Ja'Marr Chase's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 2 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 50%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Receptions101 lines trackedNo line posted 7.5typical line · receptions
line range3.5–13.5model over55%tips tracked101
Ja'Marr Chase's NFL receptions prop has been priced 101 times, typically around a 7.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Receiving Yards49 lines trackedNo line posted 39.5typical line · receiving yds
line range24.5–109.5model over99%tips tracked49
Ja'Marr Chase's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 49 times, typically around a 39.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 13 Sep 26 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals |
Receptions (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals |
Receptions (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals |
Receptions (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals |
Receptions (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals |
Receptions (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals |
Receptions (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
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Ja'Marr Chase (CIN) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Ja'Marr Chase is Over 7.5 on Receptions (Alt). The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +5.7% on this pick. Their next game is Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday 13 September at Cincinnati. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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