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NFL

Davis Mills

HOU

Value call

Davis Mills has one live pick today: over 14.5 rushing yards that pays $325 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
44 in 100
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 44.0% · the book's price implies 30.8% · gap +13.2%.

Latest Model PickFree
Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans
Houston · Indoor
Davis Mills
over 14.5 rushing yards
Rushing Yards (Alt) Over 14.5 +225 (3.25) · $100→$325
Value call
LEANWins about 44 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$32.50 Odds+225
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Davis Mills is Over 14.5 on Rushing Yards (Alt).
On Rushing Yards (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 44 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 44%, the price says 31%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 15, 1:45AM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate totals h1 unders: +$6,699 at $100 flat
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Rushing Yards (Alt)44.0%—30.8%2.27+13.2%

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AI Analysis

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Davis Mills (HOU) Over 14.5 Player rush yds alternate (+225)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The statistical data for Davis Mills doesn't support a positive outcome for a bet on him exceeding 14.5 rushing yards in the 'player_rush_yds_alternate' market. Mills has shown a consistent pattern of underperformance in recent games. His overall hit rate in the last 3, 5, 10, and 20 games is poor, with zero successful outcomes in the last 10 games. His home game performance is similarly weak, with a hit rate of only 2/10 in the last 10 games and 3/14 in the last 20. The overall current hit streak for Mills is also zero. Therefore, the model edge of 0.132405921700997 is not compelling enough to justify a bet in favor of Mills. The historical data and recent trends indicate that it's highly unlikely for Mills to break his underperformance streak in the upcoming game against the Buffalo Bills.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Rushing Yards20 lines trackedNo line posted
8.5typical line · rushing yds
line range7.5–29.5model over58%tips tracked20

Davis Mills's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 20 times, typically around a 8.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Davis Mills (HOU) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Davis Mills is Over 14.5 on Rushing Yards (Alt). The model identifies a strong positive edge of +13.2% on this pick. Their next game is Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans at Houston. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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