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NCAAF

Tim Burns Jr.

Sam Houston

Value call

Tim Burns Jr. (Sam Houston) has one live pick today: over 2.5 receptions that pays $174 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
92 in 100
Predicted
4.8 receptions
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 92.0% · the book's price implies 57.5% · gap +38.0%.

Latest Model PickFree
New Mexico State Aggies @ Sam Houston State Bearkats
Wed 21 Oct, 8:00 PM ET
Tim Burns Jr.
over 2.5 receptions
Receptions Over 2.5 -135 (1.74) · $100→$174
Value call
HIGHWins about 92 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$17.41 Odds-135
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Tim Burns Jr. is Over 2.5 on Receptions.
On Receptions, our numbers say this bet wins about 92 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 92%, the price says 57%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NCAAF schedule.
Model updated Oct 21, 4:27AM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls ncaaf totals overs: 826 of 1,532 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

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MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receptions92.0%—57.5%1.85+38.0%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games5/10

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AI Analysis

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Sam Houston State Bearkats vs New Mexico State Aggies: Tim Burns Jr. Over 2.5 Receptions (-135)

Odds correct at time of publishing

On Thursday 22 October 2026, Sam Houston State Bearkats host New Mexico State Aggies in college football. The bet we are looking at is Tim Burns Jr. Over 2.5 Receptions. This wins if Tim Burns Jr. finishes with more than 2.5 receptions. It was priced at -135 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $17.41 if it lands. That price was showing at BetOnline. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

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Pick History & Track Record

Tim Burns Jr.'s lines for Thu 22 Oct

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Receptions 2.5
-135 best over price · 1 bookWent over in 3 of the last 10 games

Tim Burns Jr.'s receptions line is 2.5, best over price -135 across 1 book. He has gone over it in 3 of his last 10 games.

Receiving Yards 32.5
-114 best over price · 2 booksWent over in 5 of the last 10 games

Tim Burns Jr.'s receiving yards line is 32.5, best over price -114 across 2 books. He has gone over it in 5 of his last 10 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
14 Oct 26 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers @ Sam Houston State Bearkats Receiving Yards 37.5 Under -114 ✓ HIT
14 Oct 26 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers @ Sam Houston State Bearkats Receiving Yards — — — Pending

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About This Player

Tim Burns Jr. (Sam Houston) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NCAAF player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tim Burns Jr. is Over 2.5 on Receptions. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +38.0% on this pick. Their next game is New Mexico State Aggies vs Sam Houston State Bearkats on Wednesday 21 October. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NCAAF betting strategy.

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