Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Log in
NCAAF

MJ Dowdy

Sam Houston

Value call

MJ Dowdy (Sam Houston) has one live pick today: under 39.5 rushing yards that pays $188 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
52 in 100
Predicted
32.3 rushing yards
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 52.3% · before adjusting for past results 56.9% · the book's price implies 53.2% · gap -0.9%.

Latest Model PickFree
Sam Houston State Bearkats @ Missouri State Bears
Tue 27 Oct, 8:00 PM ET
MJ Dowdy
under 39.5 rushing yards
Rushing Yards Under 39.5 -114 (1.88) · $100→$188
Value call
LEANWins about 52 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$18.77 Odds-114
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for MJ Dowdy is Under 39.5 on Rushing Yards.
On Rushing Yards, our numbers say this bet wins about 52 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 52%, the price says 53%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NCAAF schedule.
Model updated Nov 10, 4:44PM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls ncaaf totals overs: +$5,274 at $100 flat
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Rushing Yards56.9%52.3%53.2%2.00+6.9%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet · cancel anytime

How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/0
Last 5 games0/0
Last 10 games0/0

See his full recent form

Unlock how often this player has landed over his last 3, 5, 10, 15 and 20 games — plus his current streak.

Bet Better Unlock Full Form Curve
Cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Missouri State Bears vs Sam Houston State Bearkats: MJ Dowdy Under 39.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Odds correct at time of publishing

On Wednesday 28 October 2026, Missouri State Bears host Sam Houston State Bearkats in college football. The bet we are looking at is MJ Dowdy Under 39.5 Rushing Yards. This wins if MJ Dowdy finishes with fewer than 39.5 rushing yards. It was priced at -114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.77 if it lands. That price was showing at FanDuel. Our model leans this way, without being sure. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — the match-up read, the key numbers and how sure it is — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 5(80%)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
27 Oct 26 Sam Houston State Bearkats @ Missouri State Bears Rushing Yards 39.5 Under -114 ✓ HIT
27 Oct 26 Sam Houston State Bearkats @ Missouri State Bears Rushing Yards 37.5 Under -114 ✓ HIT
27 Oct 26 Sam Houston State Bearkats @ Missouri State Bears Rushing Yards 27.5 Over -114 ✗ MISS
27 Oct 26 Sam Houston State Bearkats @ Missouri State Bears Rushing Yards — — — Pending
27 Oct 26 Sam Houston State Bearkats @ Missouri State Bears Rushing Yards — — — Pending
21 Oct 26 New Mexico State Aggies @ Sam Houston State Bearkats Rushing Yards — — — Pending

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

MJ Dowdy (Sam Houston) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NCAAF player prop betting. The latest model pick for MJ Dowdy is Under 39.5 on Rushing Yards. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.9% on this pick. Their next game is Sam Houston State Bearkats vs Missouri State Bears on Tuesday 27 October. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NCAAF betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.