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NCAAF

Messiah Burch

Buffalo

Value call

Messiah Burch (Buffalo) has one live pick today: over 74.5 rushing yards that pays $190 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
51 in 100
Predicted
115.3 rushing yards
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 51.3% · before adjusting for past results 83.5% · the book's price implies 52.6% · gap -1.4%.

Latest Model PickFree
Buffalo Bulls @ Ball State Cardinals
Wed 11 Nov, 7:30 PM ET
Messiah Burch
over 74.5 rushing yards
Rushing Yards Over 74.5 -111 (1.90) · $100→$190
Value call
LEANWins about 51 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$19.01 Odds-111
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Messiah Burch is Over 74.5 on Rushing Yards.
On Rushing Yards, our numbers say this bet wins about 51 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 51%, the price says 53%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NCAAF schedule.
Model updated Nov 15, 4:03PM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls ncaaf player rush yds unders: +$2,107 at $100 flat
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Rushing Yards83.5%51.3%52.6%2.02+33.8%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/0
Last 5 games0/0
Last 10 games0/0

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AI Analysis

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Ball State Cardinals vs Buffalo Bulls: Messiah Burch Over 74.5 Rushing Yards (-111)

Odds correct at time of publishing

On Thursday 12 November 2026, Ball State Cardinals host Buffalo Bulls in college football. The bet we are looking at is Messiah Burch Over 74.5 Rushing Yards. This wins if Messiah Burch finishes with more than 74.5 rushing yards. It was priced at -111 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.01 if it lands. That price was showing at BetOnline. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

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Pick History & Track Record

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Nov 26 Buffalo Bulls @ Ball State Cardinals Rushing Yards 74.5 Over -111 ✓ HIT
11 Nov 26 Buffalo Bulls @ Ball State Cardinals Rushing Yards 76.5 Over -114 ✓ HIT
11 Nov 26 Buffalo Bulls @ Ball State Cardinals Rushing Yards 79.5 Over -115 ✓ HIT
11 Nov 26 Buffalo Bulls @ Ball State Cardinals Rushing Yards — — — Pending
11 Nov 26 Buffalo Bulls @ Ball State Cardinals Receiving Yards — — — Pending
03 Nov 26 Buffalo Bulls @ Miami (OH) RedHawks Rushing Yards — — — Pending

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About This Player

Messiah Burch (Buffalo) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NCAAF player prop betting. The latest model pick for Messiah Burch is Over 74.5 on Rushing Yards. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +33.8% on this pick. Their next game is Buffalo Bulls vs Ball State Cardinals on Wednesday 11 November. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NCAAF betting strategy.

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